Only one seeded player, Karen Khachanov, has made it through to the Doha semifinals. Khachanov will continue his title quest against Alexei Popyrin, while the other semifinal matchup pits Gael Monfils against Jakub Mensik.
Jakub Mensik vs. (WC) Gael Monfils
Mensik had already made a little bit of noise on tour during his brief career, but the 2024 Qatar ExxonMobil Open marks his true breakthrough. The 18-year-old Czech, who reached the third round of the 2023 U.S. Open and the second round of the Australian Open earlier this season (both as a qualifier), is through to the semifinals in Doha with victories over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Andy Murray, and Andrey Rublev. Mensik bounced back from the longest match in tournament history (three hours and 23 minutes) against Murray on Wednesday to upset the top-seeded Rublev 6-4, 7-6(6) on Thursday evening.
Up next for the world No. 116 on Friday is Monfils in what will obviously be a showdown between different generations. The Frenchman is 19 years Mensik’s senior at 37 (Monfils had 20 main-tour match wins and an ATP title when Mensik was born), but despite being well past his prime he is still–when healthy–playing good tennis. Monfils, ranked 67th, was the only player to take a set off Jannik Sinner last week in Rotterdam and so far in Doha he has disposed of Botic van de Zandschulp, Zhizhen Zhang (in a third-set tiebreaker), and Ugo Humbert. Given the age discrepancy, Mensik is the more reliable player from a physical standpoint and the way in which he held his nerve during tense moments against Murray and Rublev was especially impressive. Youth may rule the day in what should be a competitive, high-quality contest.
Pick: Mensik in 3
Alexei Popyrin vs. (2) Karen Khachanov
Khachanov and Popyrin will be facing each other for the fourth time in their careers on Friday. The head-to-head series stands at 2-1 in favor of Khachanov, who has earned both of his wins in third-set tiebreakers (Dubai in 2021 and Rotterdam in 2022). Popyrin dominated their most recent encounter 6-4, 6-2 this past fall on the hard courts of Tokyo.
It has been a quietly impressive start to the season for Popyrin, who is projected to reach a career-high of at least No. 37 in the world even if he loses on Friday. The Australian did not post any especially notable results prior to this week, but his only losses have come to Roman Safiullin in a third-set tiebreaker (Brisbane second round) and to Novak Djokovic in four sets (Aussie Open second round). Popyrin earned his place in the Doha semis by beating Abdullah Shelbayh, Hugo Grenier, and Alexander Bublik. Khachanov has advanced with victories over Fabian Marozan and Emil Ruusuvuori (via first-set retirement), improving to 7-3 for the year. The 17th-ranked Russian is the favorite on paper, but Popyrin is playing well and will take confidence from their most recent meeting in Tokyo.
Pick: Popyrin in 3
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