Entering the 2023-24 NBA season, Denver Nuggets center Nikola Jokić was favored to win his third MVP trophy in the last four seasons. It could have been argued that he deserved the award last season as well, but the oddsmakers planted him firmly in the driver’s seat, given his dominance throughout last postseason.
NBA MVP Race Tightens After Big Weeks From Embiid & Doncic
Joel Embiid has been on a TEAR over his last 11 games 🔥
40 PTS – 14 REBS
42 PTS – 15 REBS
35 PTS – 13 REBS
41 PTS – 11 REBS
34 PTS – 11 REBS
38 PTS – 14 REBS
50 PTS – 13 REBS
30 PTS – 11 REBS
35 PTS – 11 REBS
32 PTS – 13 REBS
32 PTS – 12 REBSHe’s the first center since Shaq… pic.twitter.com/6oCx0wUHnB
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) December 19, 2023
Things started off as predicted, as Jokić was as effective and productive as ever through the first 6 weeks of the season. And while he hasn’t had any sort of significant drop off, his numbers have taken a bit of a dip over the last few games. Some of the lack of productions is due to his minutes, as he was ejected in the game against the Bulls and didn’t play in the 4th quarter of a blowout against the Mavericks on Monday.
It has coincided with other NBA MVP candidates seeing a surge in their numbers. Luka Dončić has been on a tear lately with Kyrie Irving out of the lineup, and has averaged 37.1 points and 11.3 assists in his last 9 games. Dončić is the player with the third-shortest odds on the board, but his designation has dropped from +600 to +400 in 2 weeks time, via BetOnline.
Are There Any Underdogs That Could Hold Value?
Luka Doncic over the last 9 games:
38 PTS – 11 REB – 8 AST
40 PTS- 12 REB – 10 AST
39 PTS – 6 REB – 13 AST
33 PTS – 6 REB – 17 AST
35 PTS – 8 REB – 6 AST
32 PTS – 6 REB – 10 AST
40 PTS – 10 REB – 11 AST
36 PTS – 15 REB – 18 AST
41 PTS – 9 REB – 9 ASTCrazy. 🤯 pic.twitter.com/fRa5f8u8bQ
— Hoop Central (@TheHoopCentral) December 19, 2023
Jokić is still the leader at +200, but the reigning winner of the award is creeping up the board. Joel Embiid is leading the NBA in points per game with 34.4, and he has been particularly impressive over his last 7 games. Since the start of December, the 76ers center is averaging 40 points per game to go along with 13 rebounds, and Philadelphia has lost just one time in that span. The uptick in numbers has made his MVP designation drop to +325.
There are others on the board who could provide some value if you believe that they’ll eventually put up numbers to rival the current favorites. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is coming in at +700 as the leader of upstart and second-placed Thunder, and Giannis Antetokounmpo is always a threat to make a run with a current designation of +950.
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