A new study reveals that golf is the toughest professional sport to predict a winner compared to other individual sports in the last 20 years, including tennis, snooker, badminton, and squash.
The research shows that from 2004-2024, winners of Major golf championships were more likely to have a lower world ranking (WR) than champions in other individual sports.
On average, the world ranking of golf winners was 18, the lowest among all sports analyzed.
Tennis came next in unpredictability, with major tournament winners having an average world ranking of 10, an 8-point difference from golf.
Snooker champions usually ranked 10th or lower in the world when winning major championships, while badminton and squash winners averaged ranks of 4th and 3rd, respectively.
Public perception also revealed that golf was considered the most unpredictable sport in terms of performance and viewing experience.
Over a third (39%) of respondents believed golf to be the most unpredictable sport, surpassing football (19%) and tennis (9%).
Similarly, golf fans displayed the lowest confidence in predicting winners, with a 10% lower confidence level than tennis fans and 30% less than Formula 1 enthusiasts.
Golfers also reported the least consistency in their performances, scoring 10% lower than tennis players.
The Open
The Open has shown the most variation and range in winning scores over the last 20 years compared to other men’s major championships, with scores ranging from -20 in 2022 to +3 in 2008.
Analysis of scores from the top 25 finishers in the four men’s majors in the last five years revealed that The Open had the highest variation in scores across the four rounds for each player, with an average difference of six shots between a player’s best and worst rounds.
Fans found The Open particularly challenging to predict compared to other sports.
For the upcoming Troon event in July, 29 different names were suggested as potential winners, compared to 11 for Wimbledon and seven for Formula 1.
Colin Montgomerie, a winner of 54 professional titles, emphasized the unpredictability of golf, stating that even the best players can never predict the outcome due to the nature of the game.
He expressed excitement about the challenges the course presents and looked forward to watching the action unfold.
Jonathan Castleman, Managing Director at HSBC, which conducted the study, highlighted the unpredictability of sports and the parallels it draws to life.
The 152nd Open is scheduled from July 18-21 at Royal Troon, with HSBC serving as Patron of The Open.
