As the Nitto ATP Finals continue to unfold, Alex de Minaur and Lorenzo Musetti are set to face each other in a critical matchup on Tuesday night, both aiming to recover from their respective opening losses. This encounter adds a layer of intrigue, especially given their competitive history and contrasting current forms.
Musetti holds a favorable edge in their head-to-head meetings, leading 3-1 overall. However, it is noteworthy that he has never managed to secure a victory against De Minaur on hard courts. The Italian’s previous wins came on varied surfaces, including a tight contest at the 2024 Queen’s Club where he triumphed 1-6, 6-4, 6-2, and wins in Monte-Carlo and Madrid earlier in the season. Conversely, De Minaur’s solitary win was a memorable four-set match at the 2022 Australian Open, where he prevailed 3-6, 6-3, 6-0, 6-3.
Despite Musetti’s impressive performance throughout the 2025 season, he narrowly missed direct qualification for this prestigious tournament, losing out to Felix Auger-Aliassime for the final spot in Paris. In a bid to secure his year-end position, he participated in the ATP 250 event in Athens, where he reached the final but fell short against Novak Djokovic with a score of 4-6, 6-3, 7-5. Following Djokovic’s immediate withdrawal from the Finals, Musetti replaced him as the first alternate, which speaks volumes of his competitiveness this season.
However, fatigue played a significant role in Musetti’s opening match of the Finals. He faced Taylor Fritz and succumbed in straight sets, 6-3, 6-4. The quick turnaround from a grueling final against Djokovic undoubtedly contributed to his performance.
In stark contrast, De Minaur enters this matchup with a strong year behind him. At 26 years old, he has successfully clinched an ATP 500 title in Washington, D.C., and made it to the quarter-finals of both hard-court Grand Slams this season. His track record in the fall swing has been impressive as well, reaching at least the last eight in all four tournaments he has participated in. Although he suffered a loss to Carlos Alcaraz (7-6[5], 6-2) in his opening group match, the quality of the match showcased his resilience and skill.
As the players gear up for their clash, the supportive home crowd in Turin may buoy Musetti’s spirits, potentially pushing him to greater heights. Nonetheless, considering De Minaur’s current form and relentless energy on the court, he is positioned as the favorite for this encounter.
Prediction: De Minaur in three sets.
