Taylor Fritz is set to go head-to-head with Alex de Minaur in a round-robin match at the Nitto ATP Finals, marking their 12th career encounter. The Australian holds a 6-5 advantage in their head-to-head series, but the numbers reflect a close fight on the main tour, where they are evenly matched at 5-5. However, in recent times, Fritz has clearly gained the upper hand, winning five of their last seven meetings. Notably, he has triumphed twice in indoor settings, defeating de Minaur 5-7, 6-4, 6-3 at last year’s Nitto ATP Finals and again 6-3, 6-4 during the Davis Cup Finals.
For de Minaur, recovering from a challenging start in Turin has proven difficult. Currently ranked seventh in the world, he has displayed commendable performance but has little to show for it. His tournament began with a narrow loss to Carlos Alcaraz, 7-6(5), 6-2, followed by a dramatic defeat against Lorenzo Musetti. De Minaur led 5-3 in the deciding set but ultimately lost 7-5, 3-6, 7-5 after nearly three hours of play.
On the other hand, Fritz is in a strong position to secure a semifinal berth. The sixth-ranked American began his campaign with a solid win over Musetti, 6-3, 6-4, before experiencing a closely contested battle against Alcaraz, where he fell short, 6-7(2), 7-5, 6-3. With a record of 1-1 in the group stage, Fritz’s confidence is boosted, especially after his experience as a runner-up at this very tournament last year.
De Minaur’s recent struggles have raised concerns about his mental state, given his frank remarks during the post-match conference following his defeat to Musetti. In contrast, Fritz appears to be in a confident groove, ready to capitalize on de Minaur’s vulnerabilities on the indoor hard court. With his recent success and familiarity with the conditions in Turin, Fritz is favored to take this matchup.
Prediction: Fritz in straight sets.
