Outlook for Catcher and Third Base in the 2024 Season: A Closer Look at Replacement-Level Players

Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

Today, we have a two-fer of Killers lists covering a couple of key defensive positions, specifically the hot corner and behind the plate. While still focusing on teams that meet the loose definition of contenders (a .500 record or Playoff Odds of at least 9.5%), and that have gotten about 0.6 WAR or less out of a position thus far — which prorates to 1.0 WAR over a full season — I have also incorporated our Depth Charts’ rest-of-season WAR projections into the equation for an additional perspective. That may suggest that some of these teams will clear the bar by a significant margin, but even so, I’ve included them here because their performance at that spot thus far is worth a look.

2024 Replacement-Level Killers: Catchers

All statistics through July 14.

Cubs

Following the free agent departure of Willson Contreras, last year the catching corps of Yan Gomes, Tucker Barnhart, and rookie Miguel Amaya ranked 21st in WAR. Heading into this season, it made at least some sense on paper to have the 25-year-old Amaya — a former Top 100 prospect who lost significant development time to the pandemic and November 2021 Tommy John surgery — get more playing time while moving the 37-year-old Gomes, whose framing metrics had declined, into a backup role. Unfortunately, both have been terrible. Amaya has hit just .201/.266/.288 (59 wRC+) with average-ish defense (good blocking, poor throwing) en route to -0.1 WAR. Gomes was even worse both at the plate (.154/.179/.242, 15 wRC+) and behind it (-5 DRS, -4 FRV, -3.9 FRM) before getting released on June 21, replaced by Tomás Nido, who had just been released by the Mets. Nido has hit .202/.229/.331 (57 wRC+) overall but is just 4-for-41 as a Cub. Defensively, he’s got a mixed bag of metrics, though he’s been a whisker above average framing-wise. With the Cubs running last in the NL Central at 46-51, they’re more likely to be sellers than buyers at the trade deadline. Even with good catching prospects at Triple-A (Moises Ballesteros, 50 FV) and Double-A (Pablo Aliendo, 40 FV), they could improve at the position, particularly with the bar so low given Amaya’s struggles. If they wanted to do something short term on the theory that it could help them get back into the race and give them an inside track on upcoming free agencies, the Rockies’ Elias Díaz and the Blue Jays’ Danny Jansen are the top names on the market, with Díaz’s backup, Jacob Stallings, having an uncharacteristically strong season that could draw interest as well.

Pirates

After trusting 2021 first pick Henry Davis only enough to let him catch two innings during his 62-game rookie season, the Pirates opened the season with him as their starting catcher, though be fair, the sudden promotion owed something to Yasmani Grandal’a being sidelined by plantar fasciitis. In any event, Davis has hit just .153/.267/.235 (48 wRC+) with a whopping 39.2% strikeout rate. He was optioned to Triple-A Indianapolis in early May, recalled a month later, and soon sidelined by a concussion; now he’s back at Indy after recovering. Grandal has actually been even less effective than Davis at the plate, hitting .178/.207/.295 (36 wRC+) thus far. With -0.9 WAR in 917 plate appearances across the past three seasons, the 35-year-old former All-Star may be cooked. The good news is that the Pirates traded for Joey Bart in early April, and the change of scenery has served the former heir apparent to Buster Posey well. Though he missed a month due to a left thumb injury, the 27-year-old Bart — the second pick of the 2018 draft — has played solid defense while hitting .236/.330/.472 (123 wRC+) in 103 PA; his three-run homer on Sunday against the White Sox helped the Pirates finish the first half with a 48-48 record, their first time at .500 or better heading into the All-Star break since 2016. It’s still a small sample, but with seven starts in the team’s past nine games, it appears the Pirates may have found their new starter. Whether or not they can get anything out of Grandal, or what Davis’ future looks like, are other matters, but it might make sense to roll with 29-year-old Jason Delay as a backup, as he did a good job defensively last year and is currently mired in Triple-A.

Rangers

The 2023 season was a big one for Jonah Heim. He made his first All-Star team, won his first Gold Glove, set career bests with 18 home runs, a 103 wRC+, and 3.8 WAR, and won a World Series. His follow-up campaign hasn’t gone so well, as he’s hit just .241/.290/.354 (80 wRC+), and where he was outstanding defensively last year (10 runs above average in framing, three above in throwing according to Statcast), he’s regressed to average this year. While his average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit rate are about as good as last year (if not better), his groundball rate has increased from 36.3% to 41.9%, which has cost him about 50 points of expected slugging percentage. Given Heim’s lack of power, one has to wonder about the state of his left wrist. He missed 15 days due to a tendon injury last August and at one point appeared bound for surgery but returned rapidly; since then, he’s slugged just .348 across 530 plate appearances, including the postseason. Fatigue may also be a factor given that Heim has caught more innings than any catcher besides Cal Raleigh and Shea Langeliers over the past two seasons — and he’d top both of them if we counted postseasons. Regardless, backup Andrew Knizner has rarely shown he’s more than replacement-level fodder, totaling -0.7 WAR with a 67 wRC+ across 878 PA during his career. If the Rangers are staying in the race, an upgrade to someone better equipped to share the load with Heim — even Stallings if not Jansen or Díaz — could really help. And if they’re out, perhaps they could give their regular a bit of a breather in hopes that his performance rebounds.

2024 Replacement-Level Killers: Third Basemen

All statistics through July 14.

Cubs

Christopher Morel’s 18 home runs put him on pace to surpass last year’s total of 26, but just about everything else about his game has gone backward. He’s hitting just .202/.303/.387 for a 96 wRC+, down 23 points from last year, and while he’s cut his strikeout rate from 31.0% to 23.5%, he’s also shed 2.5 mph in average exit velocity (from 92.1 mph to 89.6). His .248 xBA and .468 xSLG are quite similar to last year’s numbers, and his .354 xwOBA is a 14-point improvement, but where his wOBA exceeded his xwOBA by seven points in 2023, his actual production is 51 points shy of his expected mark this season. Maybe it’s just bad luck, but his extreme pull rate (48.3%) could be a factor, particularly given that he pulls so many balls on the ground; righties are hitting .210 and slugging .248 on pulled grounders, but Morel is at .164 AVG/.178 SLG. Defensively, he ranks last at the position in both FRV and DRS (-8 in each) and seventh-worst in UZR (-2.4). Yeesh. The most readily available in-house options, Patrick Wisdom and Nick Madrigal, aren’t too exciting. Wisdom, who played 61 games at third last year and 105 in 2022, has scuffled in a utility role (.196/.279/.391, 89 wRC+) and was shaky with the glove at third last year. Meanwhile, there’s nothing in the performance of Madrigal, who’s nearing…