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A.J. Preller must have been getting itchy. It’s too early in the season for substantial trades; they generally happen before the start of the year or when the calendar has flipped to July. Teams that thought they were going for it usually haven’t accumulated enough evidence to change that view, and even if they want to trade someone, the potential of finding a higher bidder closer to the deadline makes sellers hesitant to move. But the Marlins and Padres overcame those factors and linked up on a deal that sends Luis Arraez to San Diego for a sampler platter’s worth of prospects: Dillon Head, Jakob Marsee, Nathan Martorella, and Woo-Suk Go.
There’s a lot to unpack in this deal. We’ll start in San Diego and then head east, because the Padres’ side is more straightforward. It’s like this: the Padres had roughly eight batters they wanted to use every day. Luis Campusano is more journeyman than star, but the team seems comfortable with him at catcher. With Manny Machado back to playing the field after an injury limited him to DH to start the year, the infield is set. The outfield likely isn’t changing, either: Jurickson Profar looked like the weakest link before the season, but he’s been the team’s most productive player so far. Their only plausible route to offensive improvement, then, is at DH. That’s great, though! You can play anyone at DH, more or less. But if you play an excellent defender there, you’re wasting that talent, and the Padres have one of the best defenses in baseball this season, so whoever they acquired probably wasn’t going to displace one of their regulars.
Arraez is a perfect fit in that sense, because he can definitely hit and can’t really field. The Marlins played him at second base, but they probably shouldn’t have. He’s been the worst defensive second baseman by a mile this year according to OAA and UZR, and the second worst according to DRS. The eye test agrees; he just doesn’t have the tools to handle the position. He’s athletic, but his athleticism manifests very differently, more as outrageous hand-eye coordination. The Padres played him at DH in his first game and second base to give Xander Bogaerts a breather in his next one; I expect him to mostly DH with spot duties at first and second to give Bogaerts and Jake Cronenworth some rest.
Arraez is going to hit on the Padres, because he hits everywhere he goes. He might not look like a prototypical DH, but it doesn’t much matter how you get to your production as long as you get to it. He has a career 123 wRC+, we project him for a 126 wRC+ mark the rest of the way, and he’s at 114 so far this year despite a slow start. He doesn’t add a lot of value on the basepaths and he doesn’t have home run power, but if you’re looking for someone to get on base and rack up doubles, Arraez is your guy. That’s a big upgrade from Graham Pauley, Eguy Rosario, and Tyler Wade, the team’s other options at the position.
When you look at it that way, the trade is an obvious one for the Padres. There likely aren’t any difference-making starters on the market, particularly since they already went out and acquired Dylan Cease. Relievers don’t really move the needle, and I think they’re waiting to see what their bullpen needs are closer to the deadline anyway. But they’re in a position where every win matters. Before trading for Arraez, we had them projected for 83.5 wins and a 45.3% chance of making the playoffs. In other words, they’re right on the borderline, so an extra win or two will go a long way. Arraez increases their projection by one or two wins, depending on who you think was going to get the at-bats he’s now taking. He’ll be back for more next year, too, after which he’ll become a free agent. Sure, he’s more famous than he is good – batting average will do that – but that doesn’t mean he isn’t good. Most teams in baseball would take a DH with a 125 wRC+ – they can’t all have Shohei Ohtani or Yordan Alvarez. And thanks to Miami paying his contract down to the league minimum, he’s also a bargain for the Padres this year, as Alden Gonzalez reported.
The Padres have already jumped through hoops to get their payroll down below the competitive balance tax threshold – trading Juan Soto isn’t something you do just for fun. If they’d paid Arraez’s full salary, they’d be flirting with the first level of the CBT this year, and they’ve been over the tax line for the last two years. Doing so for a third straight year carries some strong penalties, and by getting the Marlins to pay Arraez’s salary, the Padres are leaving themselves room for a deadline acquisition without risking an overage. Think of it like your first checking account out of college; they’re not right at the line yet, but saving money now means that they don’t have to worry about every last penny they spend for the rest of the year.
