Alex de Minaur, the seventh-ranked Australian player, is gearing up for the Nitto ATP Finals, and there’s a glimmer of hope in his draw: Jannik Sinner, his perennial nemesis, is not in his group. This is crucial news for de Minaur as he has faced Sinner twelve times without securing a victory. However, the landscape remains challenging for the 26-year-old as his overall record against the other players at this prestigious event isn’t particularly encouraging. With a lifetime mark of just 12-40 against his fellow qualifiers, de Minaur will need to find a way to elevate his game.
In the 2025 season, de Minaur has shown consistent performance, ending the year with an impressive record of 55 wins and 21 losses. His form has notably picked up in the fall, with a post-U.S. Open record of 14-5, highlighted by clinching his first title of the year at the ATP 500 event in Washington, D.C. While his past encounters at the Nitto ATP Finals—where he went 0-3 in 2024—don’t inspire confidence, his recent form indicates that he could deliver competitive matches.
In terms of his head-to-head statistics with other players in the field, de Minaur has struggled significantly against the elite. He remains winless against Carlos Alcaraz and has yet to secure a victory against Sinner, who has been dominant in their previous encounters. Matches against Alexander Zverev (3-8) and Novak Djokovic (1-3) further illustrate the uphill battle he faces. However, he maintains a balanced record of 5-5 against Taylor Fritz, and he has been competitive against Felix Auger-Aliassime (2-4) and Lorenzo Musetti (1-3).
With the stage set, de Minaur has the opportunity to make an impression at this year’s Finals. While the odds might be against him based on past performance, his recent success gives him a welcome dose of optimism as he aims to finally claim some signature victories against top-tier talent. As he enters this highly anticipated tournament, all eyes will be on how he can leverage his 2025 momentum and possibly rewrite his narrative on the big stage in Turin.
