The Asian swing heats up in a major way with a pair of ATP 500-point tournaments on the schedule this week. Beijing boasts an especially stacked field, led by Jannik Sinner, Carlos Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev, and Andrey Rublev. Tokyo isn’t too shabby either; it is home to Taylor Fritz, Hubert Hurkacz, Casper Ruud, and Stefanos Tsitsipas.
China Open
Where: Beijing, China
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $3,720,165
Points: 500
Top seed: Jannik Sinner
Defending champion: Jannik Sinner
Draw analysis: Sinner will be playing for the first since winning the U.S. Open when he takes the court in Beijing. The world No. 1’s draw is a good one, starting with an ice-cold Nicolas Jarry before potentially meeting either Stan Wawrinka or Jan-Lennard Struff. Nobody in the field has an easier first two rounds on paper. Sinner could face Grigor Dimitrov in the quarterfinals and either Rublev or Lorenzo Musetti in the semis, which would be more serious tests. Chengdu champion Jerry Shang is also one to watch in the top half of the bracket.
The other side is weaker in terms of depth, so anything other than an Alcaraz vs. Medvedev semifinal would be borderline shocking. Fellow seeds Karen Khachanov and Alexander Bublik are not in great form right now, so they are unlikely to provide much resistance. In fact, Bublik will probably bow out in round one at the hands of Flavio Cobolli. It is worth noting that Alcaraz will kick off his campaign against Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, who can be dangerous on any given day thanks to his booming serve.
Hot: Jannik Sinner, Grigor Dimitrov, Lorenzo Musetti, Flavio Cobolli, Jerry Shang, Bu Yunchaokete, Zhizhen Zhang
Cold: Karen Khachanov, Alexander Bublik, Adrian Mannarino, Stan Wawrinka, Nicolas Jarry
Quarterfinal predictions: Jannik Sinner over Jiri Lehecka, Jerry Shang over Pablo Carreno Busta, Daniil Medvedev over Flavio Cobolli, and Carlos Alcaraz over Karen Khachanov
Semifinals: Sinner over Shang and Medvedev over Alcaraz
Final: Sinner over Medvedev
Japan Open
Where: Tokyo, Japan
Surface: Hard
Prize money: $1,818,380
Points: 500
Top seed: Taylor Fritz
Defending champion: Ben Shelton
Draw analysis: Fritz may be the No. 1 seed in Tokyo, but the draw did not do him any favors. The recent U.S. Open runner-up’s first two matches could come against two of the best unseeded players in the field. Fritz opens with Arthur Fils before possibly running into Matteo Berrettini, who is 14-2 in his last 16 matches. Ben Shelton, the defending champion, also finds himself in the top quarter of the bracket. Potential semifinal foes for Fritz, Shelton, or Berrettini are Casper Ruud, Holger Rune, and Felix Auger-Aliassime. Considering Rune’s current struggles, it likely won’t be the Dane.
It’s a similar story in the bottom half, where no seed is safe. Hurkacz starts against Marcos Giron and could face U.S. Open semifinalist Jack Draper in the last 16. Tommy Paul is surrounded by other guys also in stellar form. The American awaits Matteo Arnaldi before possibly meeting Alexei Popyrin or Tomas Machac. Both Stefanos Tsitsipas (vs. Alex Michelsen) and Frances Tiafoe (vs. Brandon Nakashima) have to go up against red-hot Americans right off the bat. The bottom line is that although Tokyo is not as top heavy as Beijing, its depth is incredible.
Hot: Taylor Fritz, Tommy Paul, Frances Tiafoe, Jack Draper, Brandon Nakashima, Tomas Machac, Alexei Popyrin, Jordan Thompson
Cold: Stefanos Tsitsipas, Holger Rune, Kei Nishikori
Quarterfinal predictions: Ben Shelton over Taylor Fritz, Jordan Thompson over Felix Auger-Aliassime, Tommy Paul over Stefanos Tsitsipas, and Jack Draper over Frances Tiafoe
Semifinals: Shelton over Thompson and Paul over Draper
Final: Paul over Shelton
