Like many others at the 2024 French Open, Alexander Zverev took the scenic route to the quarterfinals. His reward for making it this far after battling through a pair of five-setters is being a significant favorite to reach the semis. Zverev holds a 7-2 head-to-head record over Alex de Minaur heading into their showdown on Wednesday and De Minaur is playing in his first French Open quarterfinal while bidding for his first Grand Slam semifinal appearance. The German has also emerged victorious in three of their last four meetings–a stretch that includes their only clay-court contest, won by Zverev 6-3, 7-6(5) at the 2022 Rome Masters.
All of that being said, De Minaur absolutely cannot be discounted. He beat Zverev 5-7, 6-3, 6-4 to kick off this season at the United Cup and then lost their Indian Wells matchup in three mostly competitive sets. The 25-year-old is sporting a 29-10 record for his 2024 campaign and is up to 11th in the rankings while registering at No. 7 in the live race to Turin. De Minaur has advanced so far in Paris with victories over Alex Michelsen, Jaume Munar, Jan-Lennard Struff, and Daniil Medvedev.
“I think he’s playing the best tennis of his life, for sure–especially this year,” Zverev commented. “He’s really a contender for Turin…. I’m looking forward to a battle and probably a very difficult match.”
Whereas De Minaur has pretty much cruised, Zverev’s first four rounds were more eventful than anyone else’s in the entire draw–even Novak Djokovic. The world No. 4 had to go up against Rafael Nadal in the first round and took down the 14-time champion in three high-quality sets. After making routine work of David Goffin, Zverev battled through consecutive five-setters against Tallon Griekspoor (6-4, 6-2, 3-6, 7-6(10-3)) and Holger Rune (4-6, 6-1, 5-7, 7-6(2), 6-2). He is now 32-9 this year and in the midst of a 10-match winning streak, headlined by the Rome title.
This almost certainly won’t be a walk in the park for Zverev, but his serve should be able to get him out of tricky situations. His first-serve percentage has been awesome–between 71 percent and 77 percent in all four matches this fortnight. If he continues to win free points with it, Zverev can survive another grueling contest.
Pick: Zverev in 5
