Rafael Nadal’s draw at the Mutua Madrid Open certainly isn’t the worst of all possible outcomes, but it also isn’t a good one considering what just transpired in Barcelona.
Alex de Minaur was Nadal’s second-round opponent last week and the story is the same in Madrid, where they will go head-to-head once again on Saturday. The 37-year-old Spaniard opened in Barcelona with a 6-2, 6-3 beatdown of Flavio Cobolli, but de Minaur was an entirely different proposition. With no days off in between matches, Nadal wore down physically and lost 7-5, 6-1.
The rematch marks the sixth meeting between Nadal and De Minaur, giving the 25-year-old a golden chance to level their head-to-head series at 3-3. Once 0-3 against the 22-time major champion, De Minaur has since won two in a row–having also prevailed 3-6, 6-1, 7-5 at the 2023 United Cup.
While Nadal has mostly been absent from the tour in recent seasons, De Minaur has reached new heights. The Australian recently peaked in the top 10 for the first time in his career and currently registers at No. 11 in the world. He is a sparkling 23-8 for his 2024 campaign with a successful title defense in Acapulco and a runner-up performance in Rotterdam.
The question is: will De Minaur see an improved Nadal on the other side of the net 10 days later? It’s possible. Nadal destroyed Darwin Blanch 6-1, 6-0 on Thursday and his serve looked at least a little bit better than it did in Barcelona. Moreover, Madrid is now a two-week tournament so Nadal–and everyone else–gets a day off in between matches. That should leave the former world No. 1 in better physical shape than what was on display during his recent loss to De Minaur.
That being said, conditions in Madrid are better for De Minaur–and worse for Nadal–than they were in Barcelona. Although clay is probably De Minaur’s worst surface, he grew up training on it in Spain. He is more than capable of producing good results on dirt, especially in fast conditions.
Nadal should be more competitive than he was in Barcelona, but De Minaur once again has to be considered the favorite.
Pick: De Minaur in 3
