Jannik Sinner and Felix Auger-Aliassime will be squaring off for the third time in their careers and for the second time at the Mutua Madrid Open when they battle for a semifinal spot on Thursday.
Both of their previous encounters have gone the way of Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian rolled 6-1, 6-2 at this same Madrid tournament in 2022 before getting the job done 2-6, 7-6(1), 6-1 a few months later on the hard courts of Cincinnati.
Of course, the two players have gone in different directions since those meetings. Sinner has soared to the top of sport, currently at No. 2 in the world and with a good chance to reach No. 1 following the French Open. The 22-year-old Italian has captured five titles dating back to last fall–including the Australian Open and Miami Masters–and his season record stands at 28-2. Sinner earned his place in the Madrid quarters by beating Lorenzo Sonego, Pavel Kotov, and Karen Khachanov–dropping one set to Khachanov in the process.
Auger-Aliassime peaked at sixth in the rankings at the end of 2022, but he is nowhere near that level right now. The 23-year-old has plunged to No. 35 due to a slump that really dates back to Miami in March of 2023. Auger-Aliassime was a disappointing 11-10 this season heading into Madrid, but he is turning things around with victories over Yoshihito Nishioka, Adrian Mannarino, Jakub Mensik, and Casper Ruud.
This match probably all comes down to Sinner’s health. The top seed has been dealing with a right-hip injury and was questionable to even take the court against Khachanov on Tuesday. But Sinner played, battled hard (came back from a set down to prevail 5-7, 6-3, 6-3), and seemed to emerge unscathed. Now he crucially has a day off in between matches–something he was not afforded in between the third and fourth rounds.
Auger-Aliassime is playing well again, but–even compared to Ruud–Sinner represents a steep step up in competition from the Canadian’s first four rounds. If Sinner is 100 percent, this should be a straightforward result.
Pick: Sinner in 2
