Seeds Frances Tiafoe and Holger Rune will contest their opening matches in Tokyo on Thursday, and neither has an easy draw. Tiafoe is facing fellow American Brandon Nakashima, while Rune awaits Alejandro Tabilo.
(7) Frances Tiafoe vs. Brandon Nakashima
In this battle of Americans, U.S. Open semifinalist Frances Tiafoe will take on the resurgent Brandon Nakashima as the Asian swing continues at the Japan Open. This has been a favorable matchup for the No. 15 ranked Tiafoe, who revived a miserable midseason slump after hiring coach David Witt. He has won all four of his main-tour encounters against Nakashima, although they haven’t played since 2022.
Nakashima is ranked at a career-high 36th in the world. He started the season in rough shape, and his ranking slipped low enough to force him to qualify at the Australian Open–where he failed to win a single qualifying match. Fast forward eight months and he posted a solid round of 16 showing at the U.S. Open. Nakashima just advanced to the semifinals in Hangzhou last week, as well.
Given the matchup issue and possible fatigue for Nakashima, look for this one to go to Tiafoe–although Nakashima may take a set.
Cheryl pick: Tiafoe in 3
Ricky pick: Tiafoe in 3
(6) Holger Rune vs. Alejandro Tabilo
Holger Rune has endured a wildly inconsistent season. The world No. 14 made the semifinals in Cincinnati and hasn’t won a match since. This stretch includes crashing out of the U.S. Open in the first round against none other than Nakashima. The Dane lost his first match in Hangzhou to world No. 160 Yasutaka Uchiyama last week. It’s safe to consider his game officially off the boil.
His first-round opponent in Tokyo is Alejandro Tabilo, who is ranked No. 22 in the world right now. Don’t let that fool you, however. If anything, Tabilo is struggling to an even greater extent than than Rune. The Chilean has lost six matches in a row. His solid ranking is thanks to a pair of early-season titles, but nothing of late that would suggest he is a threat to Rune.
This will be the first meeting between Tabilo and Rune. Look for the sixth seed to make his way to the second round.
Cheryl pick: Rune in 2
Ricky pick: Tabilo in 2
