The second week of Wimbledon could not be going any better for Novak Djokovic.
The 37-year-old made quick 6-3, 6-4, 6-2 work of Holger Rune on Monday night and then got a walkover from Alex de Minaur in the quarterfinals. Now on semifinal Friday he will face a huge underdog in the form of Lorenzo Musetti, who had previously never advanced this far at a Grand Slam.
While Musetti may lack experience on this kind of stage, his history with Djokovic is extensive. They have already squared off six times in the somewhat early stages of Musetti’s career, with the 24-time major champion leading the head-to-head series 5-1. Two of their meetings have come at slams (both at Roland Garros) and each time Musetti pushed his heavily favored opponent to five sets before fading late. The Italian’s lone victory has come via a 4-6, 7-5, 6-4 decision at the 2023 Monte-Carlo Masters.
Grass figures to be much less favorable for Musetti in this particular matchup. That’s not to say, however, that he incompetent on this surface–far from it. Without a single match win on grass (0-4 record) heading into 2023, from out of nowhere Musetti is 18-5 on the green stuff over the past two seasons. His 12-2 mark on it this summer includes a runner-up performance at Queen’s Club and Wimbledon defeats of Constant Lestienne, Luciano Darderi, Francisco Comesana, Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard, and Taylor Fritz. The world No. 25 has not yet won in straight sets and he needed five against both Darderi and Fritz.
Although Djokovic’s path to the semis was more routine, he has not been entirely dominant from start to finish. The world No. 2 dropped sets to Jake Fearnley and Alexei Popyrin before raising his level against Rune. A free past from De Minaur was especially welcomed since it gives Djokovic more time to rest his knee that he injured at the French Open.
Musetti has done extremely well to make it this far, but the odds are stacked against him on Friday. He is 1-5 lifetime against Djokovic (0-2 at majors) even though four of their contests have come on the 22-year-old’s favorite surface. Now they are on Djokovic’s stomping grounds, where the Serb has lifted the trophy seven times to go along with a pair of runner-up performances–including last summer (lost to Carlos Alcaraz in five sets).
Djokovic vs. Musetti matchups are pretty much guaranteed to produce exciting rallies, but it may not be extremely competitive on grass. The serve is the most important shot in tennis–especially on this surface–and Musetti does not wield a particularly big one. If he is struggling to hold serve, he will be hard pressed to stay within striking distance of his heavily favored opponent.
Adding insult to injury, Musetti played five sets on Wednesday while Djokovic played zero. Count on the former world No. 1 advancing to a 10th final at the All-England Club.
Pick: Djokovic in 3
