Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love. With just four weeks to go until the July 30 trade deadline, now’s a great time to start taking a lay of the land and determining which teams will be buying, selling, and caught in the middle. I’ll tackle the AL today and the NL on Friday. We’ve got a lot to cover, so let’s get started. All playoff odds are updated through the start of play on Monday.
**The Obvious Buyers**
**New York Yankees (99.4% playoff odds)**
It doesn’t take much scrolling through Twitter to see some Yankees fans in a bit of a panic because of how things have gone lately. They are 5-10 over their last 15 games, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo are on the IL, and Alex Verdugo and Anthony Volpe have gone cold during this disappointing stretch. But they’re still all but assured of a playoff spot, and the recent cracks in the foundation don’t change their deadline strategy. The rotation has hit a bit of a rough patch recently, but it is still a strong and deep group. Improving the offense behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge and adding bullpen depth are the two areas that New York needs to address before the end of this month.
**Potential additions:** Reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), third baseman Ryan McMahon (Rockies), and utilitymen Luis Rengifo (Angels) and Amed Rosario (Rays).
**Baltimore Orioles (98.0% playoff odds)**
Well, the Orioles certainly don’t need offense. Their position player depth is astounding, and the current roster doesn’t even include top prospects Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo, who both are waiting in the wings at Triple-A. Baltimore’s pitching, on the other hand, is something of a mess. With Kyle Bradish, John Means, and Tyler Wells out for the season, Corbin Burnes and Grayson Rodriguez are the only pitchers left in the rotation whom I’d feeling comfortable starting in the postseason. Adding a starter or two would have the cascading effect of improving the Orioles’ relief pitching by bumping Cole Irvin and/or Albert Suárez to the bullpen. They would be wise to trade from their wealth of position players to better their pitching. A swap with the Mariners, who have a surplus of pitching but lack offense, would make a lot of sense.
**Potential additions:** Starters Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo (Mariners), Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde (White Sox), Tyler Anderson (Angels), Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), Jack Flaherty (Tigers), and Cal Quantrill (Rockies), and relievers Mason Miller (A’s) and Tanner Scott (Marlins).
**Cleveland Guardians (89.2% playoff odds)**
The Guardians have the best closer in baseball, Emmanuel Clase, anchoring their bullpen, but their mostly ineffective and inefficient starting rotation could make things difficult for the relievers down the stretch as their innings pile up. It helps that Cleveland has Gavin Williams back and recently added Matthew Boyd on a one-year deal, though he won’t pitch until August, but those two are hardly enough to sufficiently reinforce the rotation. That said, the Guardians typically don’t swing big for pitching, opting instead to develop arms from within, so it’s hard to imagine that they’ll play at the top of the market for starters, especially the non-rentals. Cleveland’s offense has been a solid Voltron of multi-positional versatility and platoons, though I’d argue it could use one more everyday bat with some pop.
**Potential additions:** Starters Jack Flaherty (Tigers), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Frankie Montas (Reds), Nick Pivetta (Red Sox), and Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), outfielder Taylor Ward (Angels), and DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s).
**Minnesota Twins (79.5% playoff odds)**
Despite chasing the Guardians in the AL Central standings, the Twins are in a good position as we enter July. Carlos Correa has been dynamic, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis are in the lineup together, and the rotation has been pretty good. Still, Minnesota lacks power — catcher Ryan Jeffers, who’s been slumping lately, leads the team with 13 homers — though it certainly helps to have Lewis healthy and thumping again. The Twins could also use a better backup infielder than Kyle Farmer, who’s been anemic at the dish all season long.
**Potential additions:** Infielder Gio Urshela (Tigers), outfielder Taylor Ward (Angels), DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s), and utilityman Amed Rosario (Rays).
**Seattle Mariners (71.9% playoff odds)**
The Mariners are the inverse of the Orioles: Seattle has excellent starting pitching but desperately needs to boost its offense. The O’s have a surplus of hitters, and if the M’s are willing to trade a back-of-the-rotation arm like Bryce Miller or Bryan Woo (especially if they can add another starter elsewhere), the two teams absolutely should make a trade. Baltimore outfielder Heston Kjerstad and second baseman Connor Norby would be nice additions to the Seattle lineup. Last week, I mentioned that acquiring Luis Robert Jr. would be the best upgrade the Mariners could possibly make to their lineup, and although moving Robert would be the prudent decision for the White Sox, it’s unclear whether they’d actually do it. If not, there are still plenty of hitters on the block who’d help beef up the Seattle offense.
**Potential additions:** Second baseman Connor Norby (Orioles), outfielders Heston Kjerstad (Orioles), Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox), Taylor Ward (Angels), Josh Lowe (Rays), and DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s).
**On the Fence**
**Houston Astros (54.1% playoff odds)**
After catching fire over the final two weeks of June, the Astros probably will end up buying at the deadline, but considering their playoff odds are basically a coin flip, we have to consider both options. If they buy, they’ll focus on adding pitching, though they could certainly use a big bat at first base. If they decide to sell, I can’t imagine they’d tear it all down. I also don’t expect that they’d trade third baseman Alex Bregman, even though he’s a pending free agent, because they probably wouldn’t want to hurt their chances to re-sign him in the offseason.
**Potential additions:** Starters Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), Nick Pivetta (Red Sox), Jack Flaherty (Tigers), Trevor Williams (Nationals), and Frankie Montas (Reds), reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), and first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (Blue Jays).
**Potential subtractions:** Starter Justin Verlander and reliever Ryan Pressly.
**Kansas City Royals (40.1% playoff odds)**
Kansas City has given every indication that it intends to buy at the deadline, and its weekend series win over the Guardians did nothing to change that stance. The Royals need bullpen help and more pop in their lineup. The thing is, our playoff odds don’t love their chances. If they have a rough month, they should consider reversing course to improve their longer-term outlook so they can make a run next year. They have good complementary pieces on expiring contracts that teams would love to acquire.
**Potential acquisitions:** Reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), infielder Ryan McMahon (Rockies), outfielders Taylor Ward (Angels) and Josh Lowe (Rays), and DH/outfielder Brent Rooker (A’s).
**Potential subtractions:** Relievers Will Smith and Chris Stratton, and utilitymen Garrett Hampson and Adam Frazier.
**Boston Red Sox (31.4% playoff odds)**
Oh, if only Red Sox didn’t play in such a tough division. Winning the AL East is essentially off the table, so if they sneak into the playoffs, it’ll be as a Wild Card team. Like the Astros and Royals, if Boston is on the selling side, it should sell only its rentals so it can try to contend again next year. If the Red Sox decide to buy, they need depth on both sides of the ball. Strong seasons from Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Tyler O’Neill have helped — as will a return from Triston Casas — but the supporting cast hasn’t been quite as helpful.
**Potential acquisitions:** Starters Trevor Williams (Nationals) and Frankie Montas (Reds), reliever Tanner Scott (Marlins), infielder Gio Urshela (Tigers), and utilityman Amed Rosario (Rays).
**Potential subtractions:** Starter Nick Pivetta, relievers Kenley Jansen, Chris Martin, and Chase Anderson.
