Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love. With less than four weeks to go until the July 30 trade deadline, now’s a great time to start taking a lay of the land and determining which teams will be buying, which will be selling, and which are caught in the middle. I looked at the AL teams on Tuesday, so today, let’s cover the NL clubs. All playoff odds are updated through the start of play on Thursday.
### The Obvious Buyers
#### Philadelphia Phillies (99.9% playoff odds)
The Phillies just won’t stop winning, injuries be damned. They kept winning when Trea Turner went down with a hamstring strain in early May and missed a month and a half, and more recently when catcher J.T. Realmuto underwent right knee surgery a few weeks ago. Now, they’ve continued to win without sluggers Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper, who landed on the IL last week with relatively minor hamstring (Schwarber) and groin (Harper) strains. Philadelphia’s strong starting pitching depth has been tested lately too, with Taijuan Walker and Spencer Turnbull also on the shelf. Still, just because the Phillies have weathered these injuries so far doesn’t mean they’ll survive if this attrition keeps building. Moreover, even when they are at full strength, the Phillies still have some areas of weakness they can and should upgrade before the end of this month. Center field has been something of a black hole in Philadelphia this season. Johan Rojas has floundered in his first year as the full-time starter, and while they could move Brandon Marsh to center, he is best suited to play left field. The Phillies also should consider cutting ties with struggling utilityman Whit Merrifield.
**Potential Additions:** Center fielders Luis Robert Jr. (White Sox) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (Marlins), utilitymen Amed Rosario (Rays), Garrett Hampson (Royals), and Ildemaro Vargas (Nationals).
#### Los Angeles Dodgers (99.3% playoff odds)
The Dodgers didn’t make a flashy deadline move in either of the past two seasons, with the 2021 blockbuster for Max Scherzer and Trea Turner representing their last foray into the deep end of the market. But this year might be the time to swing big. As good as the Dodgers are, they’re very top heavy on both offense and defense. Gavin Lux and Walker Buehler haven’t bounced back from injury as expected, Max Muncy’s oblique injury has forced him to the 60-day IL, and the bullpen depth has been tested by inefficient starting pitching and injuries to Ryan Brasier and Brusdar Graterol. Getting back injured players like Mookie Betts, Muncy, Clayton Kershaw, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Graterol at various points in the second half will certainly help, but their returns might not be enough to prop up the bottom end of the roster and carry the Dodgers to the heights expected of them.
**Potential Additions:** Shortstop Bo Bichette (Blue Jays), utilitymen Luis Rengifo (Angels) and Amed Rosario (Rays), starting pitchers Garrett Crochet (White Sox), Tyler Anderson (Angels), Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Bassitt, and Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Mason Miller (Athletics), Carlos Estévez (Angels), and Tanner Scott (Marlins).
#### Atlanta Braves (92.0% playoff odds)
The parallels to the 2021 team are obvious here, except these Braves are in an even better spot. Rather than floating around .500 at the deadline, as they were three seasons ago, the 2024 Braves have excellent playoff odds even without Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider. Outfield remains an issue, with Adam Duvall struggling and the assorted cast subbing for the injured Michael Harris II stinking things up, and rookie right-hander Spencer Schwellenbach isn’t really cutting it as the fifth starter. The shallow farm system impacts the quality of player the Braves will be able to acquire, so the list of potential additions was created with that in mind. Additionally, I’m focusing on outfielders who bat left-handed, knowing that Duvall is likely to be half of a platoon.
**Potential Additions:** Outfielders Jesse Winker (Nationals) and Adam Frazier (Royals), and starting pitchers Tyler Anderson (Angels), Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Chris Flexen (White Sox), Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates).
#### Milwaukee Brewers (91.4% playoff odds)
The Brewers have plenty of position player and bullpen depth, and this week they buttressed their injury plagued rotation by trading for righty Aaron Civale, who should slot nicely into the middle of the rotation. With Civale in the fold, there’s certainly less for the Brewers to do for the rest of the month, though they could certainly add another starting pitcher or swingman-type to help cover innings. I don’t expect any big names.
**Potential Additions:** Starting pitchers Trevor Williams (Nationals), Chris Flexen (White Sox), Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates).
### On The Fence
#### San Diego Padres (57.6% playoff odds)
Never count out A.J. Preller during trade season. He could acquire star players, trade away above-average rentals, make smaller moves on the margins, or all of the above. Pitching, pitching, and more pitching would be the need if they add. Nothing’s off the table for the Padres because nothing’s ever off the table for the Padres. A weakened farm system impacts the quality of player the Padres can acquire, but there are still a few coveted prospects for San Diego to offer. The Friars could also trade from their infield depth at the major league level with Xander Bogaerts expected back from injury at some point before the end of the month.
**Potential Additions:** Starting pitchers Garrett Crochet (White Sox), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Chris Flexen (White Sox), Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Scott Alexander (Athletics), Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, and Luis García (Angels), and Tanner Scott (Marlins).
**Potential Subtractions:** Infielder Ha-Seong Kim and outfielder Jurickson Profar are the two key rentals, but I think Preller would trade pretty much anybody if the deal was right, except for Fernando Tatis Jr. and — maybe — Jackson Merrill.
#### St. Louis Cardinals (41.7% playoff odds)
The Cardinals have completely turned around their season, and while our playoff odds don’t love their chances, they’ll almost certainly be on buyers based on how things have gone since their horrid March/April. Acquiring a bat for the injury plagued outfield should be a focus, and they could also use some marginal additions to their pitching staff. Still, there are games to be played before the deadline, and while I don’t see a blowup, the Redbirds have rentals that teams would covet, and maybe someone would give them an offer they couldn’t refuse for closer Ryan Helsley.
**Potential Additions:** Outfielders Taylor Ward (Angels), Jesse Winker (Nationals), and Brent Rooker (Athletics), and starting pitchers Trevor Williams (Nationals), Chris Flexen (White Sox), Andrew Heaney and Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, and Luis García (Angels), Scott Alexander (Athletics), and Tanner Scott (Marlins).
**Potential Subtractions:** First baseman Paul Goldschmidt, third baseman Nolan Arenado, infielders Brandon Crawford and Matt Carpenter, starting pitchers Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn, and relievers Helsley, Andrew Kittredge, and Giovanny Gallegos.
#### New York Mets (41.5% playoff odds)
The Mets’ offense is rolling and the pitching has been adequate enough to get some wins while Edwin Díaz is suspended, but it’s still basically a coin flip as to whether they’ll be playing more than 162 games this year. Relief pitching was a major strength to start the year and is now a major need, and the starting pitching isn’t going deep into games either. The Mets could cast a wide net and look for help beyond this year, too. If they sell, they have a huge cache of rentals.
**Potential Additions:** Starting pitchers Garrett Crochet (White Sox), Trevor Williams (Nationals), Michael Lorenzen (Rangers), Tyler Anderson (Angels), Frankie Montas (Reds), and Martín Pérez (Pirates), and relievers Yimi García (Blue Jays), Carlos Estévez, Matt Moore, Adam Cimber, and Luis García (Angels), Scott Alexander (Athletics), and Tanner Scott (Marlins).
