We’re now down to our final two teams in the American League, the New York Yankees and Cleveland Guardians, who will hash things out in the best-of-seven ALCS starting Monday in the Bronx. Baseball, like most sports, is at its peak for fun when there’s something to prove and a little bit of competitive vengeance worked into the mix. It’s now been 15 years since the Yankees last won the World Series. Unlike their last long championship drought, during their mediocre 1980s and early ’90s, the Bombers have mostly been good since their 2009 title. They’ve made the postseason 10 times in that span and have played in five Championship Series (though they’ve failed to advance each time). Yes, the franchise that was once accused of destroying baseball because it was winning too many championships now draws scrutiny for lately having won too few.
There are a lot of reasons for the organization’s relative lack of success lately, but many fans point to a mysterious blend of Brian Cashman, too much analytics, not enough bunting, and Aaron Boone, who at various points has been accused of being the worst manager to have ever existed. Until the 11th time’s the charm for the Yankees, nobody’s going to fear Mystique and Aura. If the Yankees face a drought, the Guardians are dealing with one of Joadian proportions. Where the Yankees were emblematic as the big evil franchise, the theme among Cleveland baseball for a long time was ineptitude. When they filmed the movie Major League, there was little controversy as to which franchise would play the doormat protagonists.
At least the Cubs were considered losers of the lovable ilk. The last 30 years represent the most successful epoch for Cleveland baseball, but the franchise is still lacking a World Series trophy during that span. The last time Cleveland won it all, in 1948, neither of my parents were even born yet, and I’m a man approaching 50 at a distressingly rapid rate. In three of its last four playoff appearances, Cleveland met its demise courtesy of the Yankees. So, of course, the Guardians’ path to the World Series runs through New York; eliminating the Yankees surely would elicit an extra dose of satisfaction. But who will come out on top?
I usually start with the ZiPS projections because it would be an awfully strange approach to not use the projection system I have on my PC.
ZiPS Game-by-Game Probabilities – ALCS
| Team | Gm 1 | Gm 2 | Gm 3 | Gm 4 | Gm 5 | Gm 6 | Gm 7 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | SP Rodón | Cole | Schmidt | Gil | Rodón | Cole | Schmidt |
| Guardians | SP Cobb | Bibee | Boyd | Williams | Cobb | Bibee | Boyd |
| Yankees Odds | 52.4% | 54.9% | 46.4% | 48.8% | 51.5% | 54.9% | 52.5% |
| Guardians Odds | 47.6% | 45.1% | 53.6% | 51.2% | 48.5% | 45.1% | 47.5% |
ZiPS ALCS Probabilities
| Team | Win in Four | Win in Five | Win in Six | Win in Seven | Victory |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 6.5% | 13.2% | 17.4% | 16.4% | 53.5% |
| Guardians | 5.9% | 11.8% | 13.9% | 14.9% | 46.5% |
There will no doubt be some shifting as the series progresses, but I don’t think ZiPS would have a change in the basic story: These teams are fairly well-matched. All seven projected games stay within that 55/45 split, so it would be tough to call anyone a significant underdog.
ZiPS is going a bit against the grain here; it was one of the outliers in liking the Guardians in the preseason. So, where are the imbalances in this matchup? The Yankees have the edge on offense because of their talent at the top of their lineup.
Yes, José Ramírez is my pick for the most underrated player of this generation, someone who should be seen as a probable Hall of Famer despite rarely getting anywhere near the commensurate attention nationally. But he’s the Guardians’ only elite offensive talent, and we’re putting him up against Aaron Judge and Juan Soto at their peaks, which is a whole different tier of awesomeness.
Looking at the Judge/Soto projections vs. Cleveland’s pitching makes clear just how perilous that portion of the Yankees lineup is going to be for the Guardians.
