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Previewing Stockholm Final: Dimitrov vs. Paul – Analysis and Prediction

Stockholm final preview, pick, and prediction: Dimitrov vs. Paul

It will be crucial contest in more ways than one when Grigor Dimitrov and Tommy Paul square off at the Nordic Open on Sunday.

Not only is an title on the line, but whoever triumphs will also be No. 10 in the race to the Nitto ATP Finals. Dimitrov currently occupies that spot, but Paul is only 50 points behind in 11th place. Sunday’s champion will be fewer than 500 points behind Andrey Rublev for the all-important eighth position.

This marks the third meeting between Dimitrov and Paul; surprisingly, it’s their first matchup in more than four years. They faced each other twice during the 2020 campaign, when Paul prevailed 6-4, 7-6(6), 3-6, 6-7(3), 7-6(3) before Dimitrov cruised 6-4, 6-3, 6-1 at the U.S. Open.

As their respective standing in the 2024 race suggests, both players have been stellar this season. Paul has been especially consistent, racking up 44 match wins while climbing to No. 13 in the world. The American has advanced in Stockholm by beating Laslo Djere, Miomir Kecmanovic, and Stan Wawrinka all in straight sets. 


Dimitrov, who is a former champion of the Nitto ATP Finals (2017), has helped his Turin bid victories over Quentin Halys, Dominic Stricker, and Tallon Griekspoor. The 33-year-old Bulgarian needed two hours and 25 minutes to overcome Griekspoor 2-6, 7-5, 6-4 on Saturday.

Paul may have more left in the tank for Sunday’s final, plus he will take confidence from having already lifted the Stockholm trophy once before (his first-ever ATP title in 2021). The 27-year-old has also won an indoor title title this season at the ATP 250 event in Dallas. All of those factors may give Paul a slight edge in this one.

Pick: Paul in 3