In 2021 Matteo Berrettini was the runner-up at Wimbledon and Denis Shapovalov was a semifinalist.
Fast forward three years and they are ranked No. 95 and No. 117, respectively, requiring a borderline miracle to make it that far at the All-England Club next month. All kinds of injury issues have plagued both men in recent seasons, but they are back on the comeback trail.
Due to an ankle problem Berrettini missed the remainder of 2023 following the U.S. Open. The Italian’s return to the tour this year includes a final appearance at the Phoenix Challenger in March (his first event since last August) and an ATP title on the red clay of Marrakech. He kicked off his BOSS Open campaign with a 7-6(8), 5-7, 7-5 victory over Roman Safiullin on Tuesday.
Shapovalov did not play following Wimbledon last year because of a knee injury. Unlike Berrettini the Canadian has played this entire season but doesn’t have a whole lot of wins to show for his efforts (10-14 match record). Shapovalov is 1-1 so far on grass, with a loss to Aleksandar Vukic at the Surbiton Challenger followed by a 7-6(5), 7-5 defeat of Matteo Martineau on Tuesday.
Berrettini and Shapovalov will be squaring off for the second time in their careers during Stuttgart second-round action on Thursday. Both of their previous encounters have gone Shapovalov’s way–7-6(6), 4-6, 6-0 on the indoor hard courts of St. Petersburg in 2018 and 7-6(5), 6-7(3), 7-6(5) on the indoor hard courts of the Davis Cup Finals in 2023.
Another slick surface could result in at least one tiebreaker and maybe more being played. When the margins are small, match toughness is generally a factor–and Shapovalov has considerably more matches under his belt in 2024 compared to Berrettini. The left-hander should be able to stay perfect in this head-to-head matchup.
Pick: Shapovalov in 3
