Nobody’s French Open fortnight–and really entire spring–had been more notable than Alexander Zverev’s, so it’s only fitting that he finds himself in the final on Sunday afternoon and one win away from a first Grand Slam title.
The 27-year-old German set himself up for success at Roland Garros with a title at the Rome Masters and he has maintained the momentum through six matches. Among those six are a first-round win over 14-time French Open champion Rafael Nadal, a third-round defeat of Tallon Griekspoor from two breaks down in the fifth set, and a five-set victory at the expense of Holger Rune in the round of 16. Zverev has also advanced by taking out David Goffin, Alex de Minaur, and Casper Ruud.
Standing in Zverev’s way of his greatest triumph is familiar foe Carlos Alcaraz. The head-to-head series stands at 5-4 in favor of Zverev, including 2-1 at Grand Slams and 2-1 at Roland Garros (a four-set win the 2022 quarterfinals). They have split two meetings this season, with Zverev winning in four at the Australian Open before Alcaraz rolled in straights at the Indian Wells Masters.
Alcaraz may be among the favorites at any tournament he enters, but a deep run in Paris was never a sure thing given his preparation–or lack thereof. The third-ranked Spaniard was reduced to just one clay-court tournament prior to the French Open (lost in the Madrid quarterfinals to Andrey Rublev) because of a right-arm injury. However, he quickly silenced those questions and rolled into the semis with victories over J.J. Wolf, Jesper de Jong, Sebastian Korda, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Stefanos Tsitsipas. That set the stage for a titanic tussle with chief rival Jannik Sinner, whom Alcaraz beat in five sets on Friday.
At 21 years old, Alcaraz is now the youngest man to play in a Grand Slam final on all three different surfaces. He is 2-0 in his two previous efforts, defeating Ruud in four sets at the 2022 U.S. Open and Novak Djokovic in five at Wimbledon last summer.
Zverev, on the other hand, is 0-1 lifetime in slam finals. He served for the title at 5-4 in the fifth set of a memorable empty-stands 2020 U.S. Open championship match against Dominic Thiem but failed to close it out. Zverev, who led two sets to love, eventually lost in a tiebreaker.
From a pure tennis standpoint, Zverev is playing better than Alcaraz and this matchup is obviously a good one for the underdog. That being said, a significant edge in the “intangibles” category goes to Alcaraz. He has been on this stage multiple times and has thrived in those situations. Alcaraz is too good to get blown blown, and as long as he keeps Zverev within striking distance he should have the mental edge as the finish line approaches.
Pick: Alcaraz in 5
