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Previewing the U.S. Open final showdown between Sinner and Fritz: analysis and prediction

Madrid tennis semifinal preview, pick, & prediction: Rublev vs. Fritz

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On Sunday afternoon, Taylor Fritz will become the first American man since 2009 to play in a Grand Slam singles final when he takes the court at the U.S. Open one last time in 2024. He can also become the first American man to win a major since 2003.

Andy Roddick was the most recent to accomplish both of those feats. Roddick triumphed at the U.S. Open in 2003 before finishing runner-up to Roger Federer at Wimbledon six years later.

It is not Federer nor any other member of the Big 3 who now stands in Fritz’s way, but it is none other than the world No. 1. Jannik Sinner. Sinner, who has already lifted one slam trophy this season (Australian Open), will be a significant favorite over Fritz on Sunday.

Fritz has, however, taken down the Italian once before. The head-to-head series stands at 1-1, with both previous encounters coming at the Indian Wells Masters. Fritz prevailed 6-4, 6-3 in the 2021 fourth round before Sinner got the job done 6-4, 4-6, 6-4 two years later during quarterfinal action.


Even as recently as the early stages of 2023, Sinner was not the same player that he is now. If he is not the undisputed best player on tour, he is certainly the most consistent–which is why he owns the top spot in the rankings. The 23-year-old boasts a 54-5 record in 2024 with five titles, two of the Masters 1000 variety to go along with his Aussie Open victory. Sinner is one step away from another slam triumph following wins this fortnight over Mackenzie McDonald, Alex Michelsen, Christopher O’Connell, Tommy Paul, Daniil Medvedev, and Jack Draper.

Fritz has also been incredible this season. The 26-year-old American is 44-16 with titles in Delray Beach and Eastbourne, quarterfinal performances at the Aussie Open and Wimbledon, and now a breakthrough run to a major final. It has come at the expense of Camilo Ugo Carabelli, Matteo Berrettini, Joao Comesana, Casper Ruud, Alexander Zverev, and Frances Tiafoe. Fritz mostly destroyed his first four opponents before battling past Zverev in a fourth-set tiebreaker and Tiafoe in five.

Fritz has the firepower to hang with Sinner, but a lack of experience on this stage and a five-set semifinal in his legs are among the factors working against him.

Of course, the most significant factor of all is the man on the other side of the set. It has been Sinner’s year, and the top seed will likely put the exclamation point on it in the last Grand Slam match of the year.

Pick: Sinner in 4