Much unlike Jannik Sinner vs. Daniil Medvedev, it will be a somewhat surprising U.S. Open quarterfinal contest when Alex de Minaur and Jack Draper collide on Wednesday afternoon.
That’s not to say De Minaur is any stranger to being on this stage. In fact, this is his third consecutive run to the last eight at a Grand Slam. The world No. 10 knocked off Daniil Medvedev at the French Open before falling to Alexander Zverev and he lost only one set during his entire stay at Wimbledon but was forced to withdraw prior to facing Novak Djokovic due to a hip injury sustained in the final game of his fourth-round victory over Arthur Fils.
De Minaur then missed the Olympics and the entire hard-court summer leading into New York, but he has gotten right back to business. After looking less than 100 percent in the first two rounds, the 25-year-old appeared to be back to his normal self while defeating Dan Evans (6-3, 6-7(4), 6-0, 6-0) and Jordan Thompson (6-0, 3-6, 6-3, 7-5).
Wednesday marks the fourth meeting between De Minaur and Draper, with the Australian sweeping the head-to-head series 3-0. He prevailed 5-7, 7-6(0), 6-2, 6-3 at Wimbledon in 2022 before getting the job done twice on outdoor hard courts (in a third-set tiebreaker last fall in Tokyo and via retirement while leading 4-0 in the third set earlier this season in Acapulco).
Draper has been even more dominant than De Minaur this fortnight, although the competition level has been similarly unspectacular. The 25th-ranked Brit has advanced past Zhizhen Zhang, Facundo Diaz Acosta, Botic van de Zandschulp (who upset Carlos Alcaraz), and Tomas Machac. Not a single set in the first four rounds was more competitive than 6-4. Draper has been broken only once in the entire tournament and has saved a whopping 20 of 21 break points.
Unfortunately for the left-hander, he has not faced a returner of De Minaur’s quality and he has struggled in this matchup in the past. Moreover, Draper has never played in a major quarterfinal and prior to this result he had been past the second round only twice. At 22 years old he already has a history of physical fragility, so a best-of-five situation against a grinder like De Minaur is far from ideal.
There is always a chance that Draper overpowers another opponent in swift fashion with huge serves and forehands, but the greater likelihood is that De Minaur’s tenacious defense turns this into a long, physical fight. In that case the No. 10 seed would have an edge.
Pick: De Minaur in 5
