Ranking the Top 40 Trade Values for 2024: Nos. 31-40

Tim Vizer-USA TODAY Sports

As is tradition at FanGraphs, we’re using the lead-up to the trade deadline to take stock of the top 50 players in baseball by trade value. For a more detailed introduction to this year’s exercise, as well as a look at the players who fell just short of the top 50, be sure to read the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, which can be found in the widget above. For those of you who have been reading the Trade Value Series the last few seasons, the format should look familiar. For every player, you’ll see a table with the player’s projected five-year WAR from 2025-2029, courtesy of Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections. The table will also include the player’s guaranteed money, if any, the year through which their team has contractual control of them, last year’s rank (if applicable), and then projections, contract status, and age for each individual season through 2029 (assuming the player is under contract or team control for those seasons). Last year’s rank includes a link to the relevant 2023 post. Thanks are due to Sean Dolinar for his technical wizardry. At the bottom of the page, there is a grid showing all of the players who have been ranked up to this point.

One note on the rankings: Particularly at the bottom of the list, there isn’t a lot of room between the players. The ordinal rankings clearly matter, and we put them there for a reason, but there isn’t much of a gap between, say, the 38th-ranked player and the 60th. The magnitude of the differences in this part of the list is quite small. Several of the folks I talked to might prefer a player in the honorable mentions section to one on the back end of the list, or vice versa. I think the broad strokes are correct, and this is my opinion of the best order, but with so many players carrying roughly equivalent value, disagreements abounded. I’ll note places where I disagreed meaningfully with people I spoke with in calibrating this list, and I’ll also note players whose value was the subject of disagreement among my contacts.

As I mentioned in the Introduction and Honorable Mentions piece, I’ll also indicate tier breaks between players where appropriate, both in their capsules and bolded in the table at the end of the piece. With that out of the way, let’s get to the next batch of players.

Five-Year WAR 15.3

Guaranteed Dollars – Team Control Through 2029

Previous Rank #38

This next group of three players all play plus defense at shortstop, which goes a long way towards having teams interested in you. That said, I have some fairly serious questions about one part or another of each of their profiles, which holds their value back for me. Neto is a good example of that. There’s a lot to like here: He’s young, he has five years of team control remaining, and he’s had shockingly few hiccups in his game despite tearing through the minors at a breakneck pace before establishing himself in the majors. One thing that consistently came through when I talked to team sources is that they like Neto’s defense better than I do, which is something I tend to put more stock in when I hear it a few times. Statcast and DRS disagree here, with the former thinking he’s below average in the field and the latter thinking he’s spectacular. Baseball Prospectus agrees with DRS. Neto looks the part, though that’s obviously a fickle indicator. Let’s split the difference and call him a 60 defender at shortstop. I’m not in love with Neto’s offensive game, but that’s not to say it’s bad. It’s just unexciting; he hits for enough power to get by, doesn’t strike out too much, and doesn’t hurt or help himself with his baserunning. If he’s batting ninth in your lineup, you probably have a great offense. If he’s batting fourth, you might have a problem. This is one of the picks where I was most influenced by others; I didn’t have Neto in my top 50, but people I talked to made some compelling arguments on the defensive front. Teams value truly excellent up-the-middle defense that comes at a reasonable cost quite highly and so do I. I know that every year people look at these lists and think “Him?!” And I’m kind of with you! Zach Neto?! But a 3-4 WAR player making peanuts is attractive, and there’s the added bonus that despite being hard to measure, defensive ability is pretty stable. Your defense doesn’t really get “figured out” by an opposing hitter the way a dastardly slider might. The opposing team can’t pick on your weak point to neutralize your strengths. If you can pick it, you can pick it – and it looks like Neto can pick it.

Five-Year WAR 17.8

Guaranteed Dollars $61.8 M Team Control Through 2031

Previous Rank HM

Now here’s a guy who no one I talked to has any defensive questions about. Tovar is part ballerina and part sorcerer in the field, pairing precise footwork with prescient instincts. He’s one of the best defenders in baseball, period, and he’s only 22. You can pencil in years of highlight-worthy plays and sensational range here. You can also pencil in an outrageous amount of team control at a reasonable rate. Tovar signed a seven-year, $63.5 million extension with a club option tacked on this past offseason, so he’ll be around through his age-29 season at rates that won’t break the bank. A league average hitter with transcendent defense like Tovar’s is roughly a four-win player annually. Now, about that “league average hitter” part: I don’t see it yet. Coors Field always makes hitter evaluation difficult – Tovar already has 16 homers this year! – but I won’t mince words; his approach and batting eye just aren’t good enough. We’re talking about a guy who is theoretically a contact hitter and is running a 20% swinging strike rate. He’s been an average bat this year, and I really liked his potential as a prospect, but I look at his swing decisions and cringe. The reason Tovar is on the list is that he could be a 90 wRC+ true talent hitter and still put up 3-4 WAR every year (look at those ZiPS forecasts, for example). Two team sources were meaningfully higher on him than I was, though I don’t think that’s a universal view. I was specifically asking for feedback on my rating of defense-first hitters, and he’s a good poster boy for that group, so I’m sure I got more Tovar comments than I would have otherwise. The point is, plenty of front offices covet this combination of skill set and team control, and I would too if I were in their shoes.

Five-Year WAR 16.5

Guaranteed Dollars – Team Control Through 2028

Previous Rank #27

Volpe is a hugely divisive player to fans. His game is less contentious among talent evaluators; they consistently have him ranked higher than I do here. Volpe is a wonderful defender, with great reads, great range, and a quick release that offsets his below-average arm strength. The eye test and every statistical model agree that he’s an asset in the field. His style is less graceful than Tovar’s, but that doesn’t mean it counts less. The place where I disagreed with my (wonderful, estimable, thanks so much for your help) sources is the bat. I’ll give it to you straight: Volpe hasn’t hit in the big leagues. I’m not convinced that he will. As a prospect, I was enamored with his ability to max out his power with a fly ball-oriented approach, but that’s all but disappeared…