First-round competition at the ATP 500 event in Beijing wraps up on Friday, when Andrey Rublev begins his week against Pablo Carreno Busta. Francisco Cerundolo and Jakub Mensik are also part of a busy schedule.
(4) Andrey Rublev vs. (PR) Pablo Carreno Busta
Rublev’s 2024 campaign has been all over the place, but he has been good enough–at times–to position himself for a spot in the Nitto ATP Finals (currently seventh in the race) heading into the Asian swing. The 26-year-old Russian won the Madrid Masters and finished runner-up at the Montreal Masters, but otherwise his recent results have varied between mediocre and terrible. Rublev is coming off a decent fourth-round effort at the U.S. Open, where he fell to Grigor Dimitrov in five sets.
Up first for the No. 4 seed at the China Open on Friday is a fourth meeting with Carreno Busta. Rublev has won all three of their previous encounters, but all three have required final sets. Carreno Busta’s comeback from elbow problems is off to an encouraging start. The 33-year-old Spaniard advanced to the Cincinnati third round and the Winston-Salem semifinals before more recently posting a solid Davis Cup win over Australia’s Jordan Thompson. Carreno Busta is an incredibly solid baseliner who makes opponents play a lot of balls, and that may not be good news right now for an up-and-down Rublev.
Pick: Carreno Busta in 3
Francisco Cerundolo vs. (Q) Jakub Mensik
Mensik has been one of the ATP Tour’s breakout stars in 2024 and he is showing no signs of slowing down as he approaches the finish line of the season. The 19-year-old reached the third round of the U.S. Open and successfully qualified for Beijing by beating Hugo Gaston and Arthur Rinderknech. Mensik has earned 19 of his 22 main-tour match victories this year, propelling him to 66th in the rankings.
Up first for the Czech in the main draw is Cerundolo, whom he has never faced. Cerundolo is a pedestrian 28-25 this season and has slipped a bit to No. 31 in the world. The Argentine played pretty well in Davis Cup action earlier this month and beat Casper Ruud at the Laver Cup, but in general he is not particularly comfortable on hard courts. Mensik is in better form and is playing on a surface that is more favorable for his game, so the youngster should win this one.
Pick: Mensik in 2
