Super Bowl 58 will see a rematch of Super Bowl 54 when the Kansas City Chiefs take on the San Francisco 49ers in Las Vegas. Last time out, the Chiefs stormed back to win comfortably. Will history repeat itself four years later?
The early line opened with the 49ers as 2.5-point favorites, but immediately that line closed to within a point. It could swing through to the Chiefs being favored by kickoff. Our NFL betting experts have analyzed the matchup and made our early predictions.
Let’s take a look at our early Super Bowl predictions and picks in terms of the spread, total, and moneyline for this 49ers vs. Chiefs matchup.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs Odds
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- Spread
49ers -1 - Moneyline
49ers -115, Chiefs -105 - Total
47.5
Chiefs vs. 49ers Predictions and Expert Picks
Ben Rolfe: I liked the Chiefs getting 2.5 points in a game that is essentially a pick’em for me. However, with the line closing to -1, I’m less bullish to just bet them without some element of caution.
The Chiefs did not score in the second half of the AFC Championship Game, and the Baltimore Ravens shot themselves in the foot repeatedly. If the Ravens had been more composed in big moments, we may not even be talking about Kansas City in the Super Bowl at all.
In contrast, the 49ers adjusted brilliantly on defense to limit the Lions more as the game went on. Sure, Detroit still moved the ball, but San Francisco did exactly what was asked of it in a tough spot.
The problem is that I don’t see Kyle Shanahan outcoaching Andy Reid, and we already saw how this game went when the better coach had the better quarterback four years ago. Therefore, I’m not riding the 49ers, either.
MORE: Super Bowl 58 Early Preview
Instead, my angle on this game is to do my favorite thing and buy some points in a teaser. I believe the Chiefs either win this game or lose it by less than a touchdown. Therefore, I’m taking Kansas City up to 6.5 or 7 points, depending on the best price I can get by shopping around this morning. Then I will take the total down to 41.5 and take the over.
If this line later swings through the zero to favor the 49ers, I may well double down by taking the same sort of line on San Francisco. This game should come right down to the wire between two excellent teams.
Pick: Chiefs +6.5 & Over 41.5 total points (-108 at ESPN BET)
David Bearman: Maybe people learned their lesson by now to not bet against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. Even when counted out, the Chiefs and Mahomes do their thing and are in their fourth Super Bowl over the last five years, something only done by two other franchises in the SB era.
Mahomes is now 10-1-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog, and he’s getting points again.
I’m not betting against last year’s champs, especially now that they have another weapon – their defense. What Steve Spagnuolo and Kansas City’s defense did to a Baltimore offense that was averaging 34 points per game, was tops in the NFL in rushing, and was led by presumptive MVP Lamar Jackson, was nothing short of outstanding.
Never before has Mahomes had a defense like this, which also shut down the Miami Dolphins and Buffalo Bills twice this season and held the Philadelphia Eagles to 21 points.
Great comebacks by the Niners vs. the Green Bay Packers in the Divisional Round and again vs. the Detroit Lions in the Conference Championship got them here. However, if that same San Francisco team we saw in the first half of both playoff games comes out in Las Vegas, the Chiefs will win easily.
I assume they will be ready, so we should have a good game. Four years ago, I predicted a 31-20 Kansas City win over the Niners, and I’m going back to the well, with the same score.
I grabbed this line at -2.5 and the moneyline at plus odds for the Chiefs.
Pick: Chiefs (+2.5, +114 ML — Chiefs 31, Niners 20)
Brian Blewis: If this postseason has taught us anything, it’s to never fade Mahomes in the playoffs, especially as an underdog.
But one unique aspect of this Kansas City team is that despite Mahomes’ excellence, it’s their defense that has been their best unit all season long. In their AFC Championship victory, they held Jackson and the Ravens to just 10 points and 336 yards of offense.
While Shanahan has debunked the narrative that his teams can’t come from behind, the 49ers’ two playoff wins have come against the 21st and 23rd-ranked defense by EPA/play during the regular season — the Chiefs were sixth.
MORE: Who’s To Blame for Detroit Lions’ Historic Choke Job?
As impressive as their two double-digit comebacks were, San Francisco can’t count on Kansas City to make the same mistakes and commit turnovers. While you could argue against this during the regular season, when the Chiefs’ wide receivers were routinely dropping easy passes, they’ve delivered in the postseason.
Although Brock Purdy has had some magical moments on key drives in both games, going against this Chiefs defense is going to be a huge test for him. With that in mind, plus Mahomes getting points, it’s hard not to take Kansas City.
Much like Bearman, I grabbed this as soon as it came out with the Chiefs getting 2.5 points, which felt wrong immediately.
Pick: Chiefs +2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
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