Andrey Rublev and Taylor Fritz have already faced each other twice in the semifinals of Masters 1000 events heading into their Friday showdown at the Mutua Madrid Open. Fritz got the job done 7-5, 6-4 in the 2022 Indian Wells final four before Rublev prevailed 5-7, 6-3, 6-1 last year in Monte-Carlo.
Overall, Fritz leads the head-to-head series 5-3 (4-3 if you don’t count a 2023 Laver Cup contest). The American had won three in a row at Rublev’s expense prior to his 2023 Monte-Carlo setback.
Rublev went on to lift his first and only Masters 1000 trophy in Monte-Carlo and from out of nowhere he arguably looks like the favorite to triumph for a second time at this level. The eighth-ranked Russian had been on a four-match losing streak heading into Madrid, but it has all turned around from him in a major way. Rublev opened with straight-set victories over Facundo Bagnis, Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, and Tallon Griekspoor before upsetting two-time defending champion Carlos Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.
Fritz also proceeded to take the title when he beat Rublev in a Masters 1000 semi and–like Rublev last spring in Monte-Carlo–his triumph in Indian Wells two years ago remains his lone 1000-point success. A second such trophy would also mark his first-ever title on clay. The world No. 13 came close to snagging one earlier this spring, falling to Jan-Lennard Struff in the Munich championship match. Fritz has remained in fine form with Madrid defeats of Luciano Darderi, Sebastian Baez, Hubert Hurkacz, and Francisco Cerundolo. All of those are stellar results based on either the overall quality of the opponent or the clay-court surface.
Fritz is playing well, but it almost feels like destiny for Rublev to suddenly go from zero (the worst slump of his career since becoming a staple of the top 10 four years ago) to hero (Madrid title winner) this fortnight. He has been the best player throughout the tournament and–even though both guys are hard-court players–it would be fair to see that a slight edge on clay goes to Rublev.
Look for the No. 7 seed to build on his new-found momentum by winning a competitive, high-quality contest.
Pick: Rublev in 3
