Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner are one round away from another potential showdown, this time at the Rolex Shanghai Masters. They just faced each other for the Beijing title, with Alcaraz triumphing in a third-set tiebreaker.
Daniil Medvedev stands in Sinner’s way of a rematch, while a more surprising opponent awaits Alcaraz on Thursday. That’s not to say that Tomas Machac isn’t a worthy foe. The 23-year-old has been stellar this season, with a 29-19 match record that his him up to 33rd in the rankings. Machac is in great shape to be seeded at the 2025 Australian Open, as he is projected to reach at least No. 29 in the world following Shanghai victories over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Aleksandar Vukic, and Tommy Paul.
Up next for the Czech is a second meeting with Alcaraz after they recently squared off during Davis Cup competition. Machac took the first set in a tiebreaker but dropped the second 6-1 and then retired due to cramping.
Alcaraz was motivated in team settings (Davis Cup and Laver Cup) earlier this fall and is probably even more inspired now. He is in a race with Alexander Zverev for the No. 2 ranking and No. 2 seed at the Aussie Open, and at the moment the Spaniard is winning it. Early returns suggest that the 21-year-old could dominate the fall swing like Sinner did in 2023. On the heels of a Laver Cup-clinching win and successful Davis Cup quarterfinals qualification for Spain, Alcaraz triumphed over Sinner in Beijing and then secured his quarterfinal spot in Shanghai by beating Jerry Shang, Yibing Wu, and Gael Monfils all in straight sets.
Machac is no pushover, but the underdog is 2-11 lifetime against top-10 opponents–with wins over a struggling Andrey Rublev at the 2024 Miami Open and over an entirely out-of-sorts Novak Djokovic in Geneva one month later. Machac caught those two guys at the right time; he is running into Alcaraz at the wrong time.
Pick: Alcaraz in 2
