Alex de Minaur is set to clash with Daniil Medvedev in what promises to be a thrilling quarterfinal match at the Rolex Shanghai Masters. This encounter marks the 12th meeting between the two players, with Medvedev currently holding a 7-4 edge in their head-to-head record. Historically, Medvedev dominated the early exchanges, leading the series 6-2, but the balance has shifted following De Minaur’s victories in recent high-stakes matches, including a notable win at Roland Garros in spring (4-6, 6-2, 6-1, 6-3) and another victory earlier this season in Monte-Carlo (6-2, 6-2).
Medvedev’s run in Shanghai has been anything but straightforward. The 18th-ranked Russian faced significant challenges in his previous round, battling cramps during the second set against Learner Tien before ultimately securing victory with a score of 7-6(6), 6-7(1), 6-4 after a grueling two hours and 52 minutes on court. This match followed straightforward victories over Dalibor Svrcina and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, which were both won in straight sets.
In contrast, De Minaur has been smooth sailing through the tournament. The seventh-ranked Australian has navigated his path to the quarterfinals without losing a set, defeating Camilo Ugo Carabelli, Kamil Majchrzak, and Nuno Borges with relative ease. With a remarkable 50-18 record for the 2025 season, De Minaur’s consistency and form are evident.
Considering the physicality of the match and the conditions in Shanghai, De Minaur’s fitness and playing style appear to give him the upper hand. His ability to thrive under pressure and manage the extreme conditions stands in stark contrast to Medvedev’s recent struggles in similar climates, notably during earlier tournaments this season.
In summary, as the two players prepare to meet, all signs point towards De Minaur using his superior current form and fitness to outlast Medvedev. Tennis enthusiasts can expect an intense contest, with a prediction leaning towards De Minaur clinching the match in straight sets.
