Identifying players who could break out for fantasy football purposes can be a big part of winning your league. The majority of the players are already known commodities but have yet to reach the ceiling of their potential. If fantasy managers can identify which players will take the next step in any given season, they can find all-important draft-day value. Ahead of the 2024 season, Pro Football Network’s fantasy analysts have run the numbers and picked their fantasy football breakouts for the upcoming season.
Which Players Could Be Set To Break Out in 2024?
While we set our benchmark for sleepers at an ADP of 120 or later, things are a little different with breakouts. The names of the players on this list will all be common knowledge to fantasy managers, but they are players who could outperform their current value. In some ways, any “sleeper” is also a “breakout” candidate, but not all “breakout” candidates are “sleepers.” A player being drafted in the third round could be a breakout, but he is not a sleeper. Everyone knows he has legitimate fantasy value, but could he be about to show us a new side of him that changes our opinion of his value?
**Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders**
For my two breakouts, I’m taking two different approaches. Terry McLaurin is the type of breakout I draft as many shares of as possible, while my secondary option will have an exposure cap — the difference being the range of outcomes.
What is the floor for McLaurin? He’s a version of Garrett Wilson, saying that we’ve seen him produce viable numbers (77+ catches and over 1,000 yards in four straight seasons) without much help under center yet have reason for hope in 2024. That stat line isn’t the end of the world at the end of the fifth round. What if Jayden Daniels hits in a big way? Santana Moss caught eight touchdowns in Robert Griffin III’s rookie season, while Pierre Garçon averaged 75.5 receiving yards per game that season (removing two games on either end of an injury). Extend that pace … could McLaurin, as the clear-cut WR1 in this offense push for 1,300 yards with a career-high eight touchdowns? That’s essentially the stat line that Brandon Aiyuk put forward last season, and if we get anything close to that, McLaurin is returning strong value on investment. I have him breaking into the strong WR2 conversation this season with an upside that isn’t reflected in his current ADP. – Kyle Soppe, Fantasy Football Analyst
**Zack Moss, RB, Cincinnati Bengals**
When we think breakouts, we typically think of players in their second or third seasons. Zack Moss is entering his fifth. Yet, he is a true breakout candidate, never having put together a season better than last year’s 12.1 fantasy points per game. Moss couldn’t ask for a better situation. He’s the lead running back for one of the league’s best offenses. The primary criticism of Moss is that he’s mostly just a guy. Here’s the thing, though: Last year, Joe Mixon was kind of just a guy. Mixon averaged 4.0 yards per carry, saw a 10.8% target share, and was outside the top 30-35 in most efficiency metrics. He averaged 15.7 points per game. Moss can do that. If Moss doesn’t do anything more than he did last season but merely adds five touchdowns, he would average around 14 fantasy points per game, and I think his upside is even higher. Moss looks like one of the best values in fantasy drafts this season. – Jason Katz, Fantasy Football Analyst
**Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions**
You can go the McLaurin route for your breakout, or you can throw caution to the wind and draft a player like Jameson Williams. His big-play skill set isn’t set to offer much of a weekly floor, but with his playing time taking off down the stretch last season, his quantity of opportunities is worth chasing in an offense we all trust. The Lions play a largely unimpacted schedule when it comes to weather, and that’s not nothing for a burner like this. Detroit has two alpha target earners (Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta), making weekly value an uphill battle. But if his snap share from last winter is sustained this season, Williams is the type of player I’m flexing every week, understanding that with the valleys come a handful of week-winning performances.
**Zay Flowers, WR, Baltimore Ravens**
The historic rookie season we got from Puka Nacua makes it easy to overlook just how encouraging Zay Flowers’ 77 receptions for 858 yards and five scores on 108 targets for a WR31 finish was in 2023. Yet, he is currently coming off the board as the WR33 heading into his second season with a reigning MVP in quarterback Lamar Jackson under center. That doesn’t make much sense to me at all. Flowers had a 68-yard touchdown called back against the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 11 and didn’t play in the season finale because the Baltimore Ravens had already locked up the home-field advantage by that point, which means these numbers could have been even better last year.
**Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seattle Seahawks**
I would stop short of saying Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a lock to break out. Of course, nothing is guaranteed. However, the stage is set for JSN to take a large step forward. Historically, sophomore WRs have been a very good bet in fantasy. Smith-Njigba was largely held back by playing behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett as a rookie. There is an argument to be made that he would’ve commanded more targets if he were better. However, asking Geno Smith to support three fantasy-relevant WRs is a lot. JSN had one opportunity to play with one of Metcalf or Lockett out of the lineup. In that game, he caught four passes for 63 yards and a touchdown. Smith-Njigba flashed enough upside as a rookie for fantasy managers to be cautiously optimistic about a breakout. The best part is…
