As the ATP season approaches its climax, the rivalry between Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz takes center stage once again, showcasing not only their prowess on the court but also their duel for the top ranking. After clinching the title at the Paris Masters, Sinner ascended to the No. 1 spot in the ATP rankings, ending Alcaraz’s brief hold on the position. However, the fluctuating nature of the rankings means that Alcaraz is set to reclaim his top ranking next Monday, when the points from last year’s ATP Finals drop off.
Currently, Sinner leads with 11,500 points, followed closely by Alcaraz at 11,250. Their narrow margin illustrates how pivotal their upcoming performances at the ATP Finals in Turin will be in determining who finishes the year atop the rankings. As of now, Sinner is poised to lose the 1,500 points he earned from winning the finals last year, while Alcaraz will shed just 200 points due to his early exit in the group stage of the same event. This recalibration will see Alcaraz’s points adjust to 11,050, putting him ahead of Sinner’s likely total of 10,000.
The intense competition for the top two spots is compounded by the fact that No. 3 Alexander Zverev is significantly behind with 5,560 points. Both Sinner and Alcaraz have showcased their abilities throughout the year, capturing all four major titles between them. Sinner secured the Australian Open, Alcaraz triumphed in a breathtaking French Open final against Sinner, and they traded victories at Wimbledon and the U.S. Open.
Interestingly, Alcaraz will enter the ATP Finals as the top seed despite relinquishing the No. 1 ranking. This is due to the “Race to Turin” system, which exclusively considers points accumulated during the current calendar year. Alcaraz maintains a lead of over 1,000 points in this particular ranking, a feature that adds complexity to their rivalry.
Heading into the finals, Sinner must win the tournament while simultaneously hoping that Alcaraz does not reach the final to secure the year-end No. 1 position for the second consecutive year. On the other hand, Alcaraz needs to win at least three matches to reclaim the year-end top ranking for himself, a feat he first accomplished in 2022 at just 19 years old.
In the women’s game, Aryna Sabalenka has already secured the WTA year-end No. 1 ranking without further contest. As the ATP Finals approach, Sinner rides a wave of momentum from a 10-match winning streak, having won both the Vienna and Paris tournaments. He will be playing on his preferred indoor hard court surface, bolstered by the support of local fans.
Conversely, Alcaraz arrives in Turin seeking to find his footing after suffering an early loss to Cameron Norrie in Paris, reflecting his ongoing struggles in indoor conditions.
The tournament will also see Zverev, Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz, Felix Auger-Aliassime, and Alex de Minaur among those competing. Auger-Aliassime and Lorenzo Musetti are still vying for the final place in the finals, with Musetti needing to secure a title in Athens this week to qualify.
Djokovic’s commitment to the finals remains uncertain, especially as he has indicated a focus on major tournaments at this stage of his career. He is currently competing in Athens, and if he withdraws from the ATP Finals, the door will open for both Auger-Aliassime and Musetti.
As anticipation builds for the draw of the ATP Finals scheduled for Thursday, the only certainty is that the ongoing rivalry between Sinner and Alcaraz will be magnified, setting the stage for a thrilling conclusion to the 2025 ATP season.
