Jannik Sinner and Daniil Medvedev will be among the final seeded players to take the court at the Madrid Masters on Saturday. Sinner is going up against fellow Italian Lorenzo Sonego, while Medvedev awaits Matteo Arnaldi.
(1) Jannik Sinner vs. Lorenzo Sonego
Sinner and Sonego have faced each other only four times, but it has already become one of the most boring and lopsided rivalries in tennis. In a matchup between two friendly Italians, Sonego has always seemed to lack both belief and motivation. Sinner is sweeping the head-to-head series 4-0 overall and 9-1 in total sets. All four of their previous meetings came last season and only one (in Halle) was competitive. Sinner dominated their two most recent encounters 6-4, 6-2, 6-4 at the U.S. Open and 6-2, 6-4 on the indoor hard courts of Vienna.
There is no reason to think anything will be different at the Mutua Madrid Open. Sinner is even better now than he was when Sonego saw him on the other side of the net in 2023. The 22-year-old is up to No. 2 in the rankings and has won six titles dating back to last fall, including the Australian Open and Miami Masters. As for Sonego, he is saddled with a dreadful 7-12 record this season. The world No. 52 did well to defeat Richard Gasquet 6-2, 7-5 on Thursday, but it’s hard to see him putting up any real resistance against Sinner.
Pick: Sinner in 2
(3) Daniil Medvedev vs. Matteo Arnaldi
Which clay-court version of Medvedev will show up on Saturday–the one who openly despises the surface and lost in the first round of the 2023 French Open, or the one who triumphed at the Rome Masters last spring? Conditions in Madrid should actually be good for Medvedev relative to other clay-court tournaments, as the ball travels fast at high altitude. The fourth-ranked Russian is in pretty good form, too, with runner-up performances this season at the Aussie Open and in Indian Wells.
Up first for Medvedev is a third meeting with Arnaldi, who trails the head-to-head series 2-0. Medvedev prevailed twice last year–6-4, 6-2 in Dubai and 6-2, 7-5 at the Toronto Masters. However, Arnaldi cannot be discounted. The 23-year-old Italian has been playing the best tennis of his life dating back to last summer and is on the verge of being seeded for Grand Slams at No. 36 in the rankings. Arnaldi delivered his 14th victory of the season by beating Christopher O’Connell 6-4, 6-1, and a match under his belt will be to his advantage against an opponent who has played only two matches on this clay-court swing (beat Gael Monfils in Monte-Carlo, lost to Karen Khachanov). Medvedev should advance, but it probably won’t be routine.
Pick: Medvedev in 3
