The men’s side of the Mutua Madrid Open was a tragic comedy of retirements and walkovers. However, the women’s tournament did not disappoint. Aryna Sabalenka played a trio of thrillers, beating Danielle Collins and Elena Rybakina before losing a heartbreaker in the final against Iga Swiatek. Can either Sabalenka or Rybakina take down the top-ranked Pole in Rome? How about an American like Collins or Coco Gauff?
Here are my best bets for the women’s 2024 Internazionali BNL d’Italia.
Iga Swiatek (+140)
Swiatek is the best player in the world regardless of surface–but she is especially dominant on clay. The three-time French Open champion is coming off a title in Madrid. It wasn’t easy (at least not in the final against Sabalenka), but it was never going to be in quick conditions at high altitude where big hitters can take the racket out of Swiatek’s hands. Rome is more favorable for Swiatek, who has lifted the trophy twice at this event.
Danielle Collins (+1300)
Nobody on tour has been hotter than Collins this spring–not even Swiatek. Collins won back-to-back titles in Miami (hard courts) and Charleston (clay), losing a total of two sets combined throughout those two tournaments. In Madrid the 30-year-old American advanced two rounds before losing in three sets to Sabalenka–an extremely high-quality match.
Jelena Ostapenko (+4000)
It’s going to take something special to beat Swiatek in Rome, which means–outside of the world No. 1–you might as well make a home-run swing. Ostapenko is always a worthy candidate for a proverbial home run given the hit-or-miss nature of her game. When the Latvian gets hot, watch out (see the 2017 French Open and her 2023 U.S. Open upset of Swiatek). Ostapenko’s recent Rome results include a pair a quarterfinal finishes followed up a semifinal performance last spring.
