Aryna Sabalenka winning the Australian Open was not a huge surprise to begin the 2024 WTA season, but there have been some interesting results through the first two months. Iga Swiatek lost to Linda Noskova in Melbourne and to Anna Kalinskaya in Dubai, and the latter tournament saw Kalinskaya face Jasmine Paolini in a shocking 1000-point final.
Does that mean we should expect the unexpected at the upcoming BNP Paribas Open? Sure, there could be chaos in Indian Wells. However, the greater likelihood is that Swiatek or one of the other top favorites takes care of business in the desert. This tournament has produced very few longshot women’s champions during its 34-year history.
Here are my best bets for 2024 event.
Iga Swiatek (+275)
Odds on Swiatek are higher than they usually are following her recent losses at the Australian Open (to Noskov in the third round) and in Dubai (to Kalinskaya in the semifinals), but in between she captured a 1000-point title in Doha. Conditions in Indian Wells are as ideal for Swiatek as you can get away from clay. She won this tournament two years ago and reached the semis last March.
Coco Gauff (+650)
Gauff has a favorable draw on the opposite side from Swiatek and the 19-year-old American should be able to capitalize. Because of extremely high expectations, public perception is that Gauff has struggled a bit in 2024. Her last two starts have not been spectacular, it’s true, but she already has one title under her belt (beat Elina Svitolina in the Auckland final) and advanced to the semis at Melbourne Park.
Elina Svitolina (+5000)
Svitolina is back in a big way following the birth of her first child, with a quarterfinal showing at Roland Garros in 2023 followed by a semifinal performance at Wimbledon. The Ukrainian has won four WTA 1000 titles throughout her career, including two on hard courts. Svitolina made a run to the Indian Wells semifinals in 2019 and has a relatively favorable draw this time around, so she should be in line for more success.
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