There is a commonly repeated belief that having the best player in a series often leads to winning it. However, the overall context of the teams involved is also important. Despite the Dallas Mavericks having Luka Doncic, the Boston Celtics had a superior record and point differential in the regular season.
Research by Ben Rohrbach shows that the team with the “best” player in the NBA Finals has won 56 out of 68 championships, resulting in an 82.4 percent win rate. Interestingly, LeBron James has been on the losing side in five of those 12 cases.
In Finals history, the team with the better regular season record has a record of 47-18, translating to a win percentage of 72.3 percent. Teams that have finished with at least eight more wins than their opponents have a remarkable 30-5 record, equating to an 85.7 percent winning percentage.
