When Steven Kwan left the Guardians’ May 4 victory after straining his left hamstring, the Guardians owned the American League’s second-best record (21-12) as well as a 1.5-game lead in the AL Central. While Kwan was their most productive hitter at the time, they’ve thrived in his absence, going 15-6 thanks in part to a nine-game winning streak that ended at the hands of the Rockies on Monday. All of that has netted them the league’s second-best record (36-18)… and a 2.5-game lead in the Central.
The Guardians haven’t gained as much ground as you might expect given that the Royals ran off an eight-game winning streak that began on the same day as Cleveland’s streak and have gone 14-7 in Kwan’s absence; meanwhile, the Yankees have gone 15-5 to supplant the Orioles (12-7) as the team with the league’s best record. Still, the streak did create some daylight between the Guardians and the Twins, who were tied for second in the division with the Royals but have since gone 10-11 to fall to 6.5 games back. A soft schedule probably didn’t hurt the Guardians, either. After winning the rubber game of their three-game series with the Angels sans Kwan, they took two of three from the Tigers, lost three of four to the White Sox (oops), then took two of three from the Rangers before sweeping consecutive three-game series from the Twins, Mets, and Angels. Collectively those teams have a weighted winning percentage of .418, with the Twins (.547 via a 29-24 record) the only ones at or above .500.
Kwan’s injury is a convenient inflection point for analysis. If it’s still somewhat arbitrary, it does offer a window into the Guardians’ overall performance, as well as how they’ve maintained a .714 winning percentage without him. For starters, a quick look shows that the offense has maintained its productivity, cranking out an even five runs per game, while the run prevention has improved slightly:
Guardians Before and After Steven Kwan’s Injury
| Split | W | L | Win% | RS/G | RA/G | PythW% | BaseRuns RS/G | Baseruns RA/G | BaseW% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Through May 4 | 21 | 12 | .636 | 4.97 | 3.76 | .625 | — | — | — |
| Since May 5 | 15 | 6 | .714 | 5.00 | 3.52 | .656 | — | — | — |
Overall, the Guardians are second in the AL in scoring and third in run prevention. In both stretches, they’ve outplayed their Pythagenpat-projected winning percentages, doing so over the more recent one in part because they’ve gone 5-1 in one-run games, compared to 5-5 prior; that said, they’ve also gone 5-0 in games decided by five or more runs lately, compared to 5-4 in the games before the injury.
