Steven Kwan has been instrumental in helping the Guardians climb to the top of the AL Central and compile the league’s second-best record (23-12) and largest division lead (2.5 games). Unfortunately, the 26-year-old left fielder won’t be around to help them for awhile due to a hamstring strain, though if there’s a silver lining, the injury has opened the door for the debut of one of their top prospects, 23-year-old Kyle Manzardo.
Kwan felt tightness in his left hamstring and departed after the third inning in Saturday’s game against the Angels. During the inning, he had run into foul territory to make a basket catch on a Mickey Moniak fly ball, and afterwards, showed some discomfort: An MRI revealed that Kwan had suffered an acute strain of the hamstring, and on Monday, the Guardians placed him on the 10-day injured list.
This is Kwan’s first trip to the IL in the majors, but according to the left fielder, he’s no stranger to hamstring injuries, having suffered them while in college at Oregon State and during his time in the minors.
“I’ve had little ones here and there on both legs,” he said after Saturday’s game. “It’s a hamstring thing. Hamstrings always pops up.”
The injury, expected to sideline Kwan for four weeks, comes at a time when he’s been at his absolute best. He’s hitting .353/.407/.496, good enough to lead the AL in batting average and rank third in on-base percentage, fourth in WAR (1.9), seventh in wRC+ (164), and even 13th in slugging percentage.
What’s remarkable is that he’s doing this the way he always does: rarely hitting the ball hard, but just about always hitting it if it’s in the strike zone. In fact, Kwan’s 84.4 mph average exit velocity is the lowest mark of his three-year career:
Kwan’s exit velocity ranks in just the fourth percentile, but don’t worry, he can go lower. His hard-hit rate, which is also a career low, ranks in the first percentile, but his barrel rate — which has tripled relative to last year — is waaaay up in the 15th percentile instead of also ranking in the first percentile, as it has in each of the past two seasons. He’s already barreled four balls, putting him more than halfway to his career high of seven. Similarly, his three homers put him halfway to his career high of six.
Kwan couldn’t succeed without doing some things very well. He’s very disciplined at the plate, chasing just 24% of pitches outside the zone according to Sports Info Solutions’ measure. If he likes a pitch in the zone enough to swing, he doesn’t miss it. His 96.9% zone contact rate is the majors’ second highest, and unlike the one hitter with a higher rate (Jeff McNeil, 97.5%), he’s been exceptionally productive; McNeil has not, hitting .231/.311/.306 (87 wRC+). Kwan’s 2.9% swinging strike rate is the lowest among qualifiers, while his 7.6% strikeout rate is second only to Luis Arraez (6.7%). He hit the IL while riding a streak of 74 consecutive plate appearances without a strikeout, having last been punched out by Boston’s Kutter Crawford on April 15.
Where Kwan has been particularly effective relative to years past is in the shadow zone, the region that’s roughly one ball width inside and outside the strike zone:
Kwan’s wOBA on those balls this year is just one point below his wOBA on balls in the heart of the zone (.409, via a .381 AVG and .556 SLG), which is just ridiculous. Five of his 11 extra-base hits have come on such pitches, including a homer off Chris Sale on April 26, a triple off Justin Verlander on May 1, and a couple of doubles at the expense of A’s outfielders who must have been testing their slapstick routines:
By Statcast’s swing/take metric, Kwan is three runs above average in the shadow zone, good for 13th in the majors and a 15-run improvement relative to last year.
Nobody will confuse Kwan’s batted ball stats with those of Shohei Ohtani, but he does excel in the type of contact that’s reflected by his sweet spot rate, the percentage of batted balls hit with a launch angle between eight and 32 degrees. Last year, batters hit .593 and slugged 1.092 on sweet spot contact, making such balls a bit more productive than 95-mph-and-above hard-hit balls (.506 AVG/1.008 SLG), though not nearly as productive as barrels (.742 AVG/2.493 SLG). So far this year, batters are hitting .572 and slugging 1.007 on sweet spot contact.
Manzardo — whose name always puts me in mind of a great Jerry Stiller moment on Seinfeld — spent most of last season with the Rays’ and Guardians’ Triple-A affiliates, hitting an unremarkable .236/.337/.464 (97 wRC+) with 17 homers, a 13.3% walk rate, and a 19.3% strikeout rate. After placing 28th on our in-season Top 100 list with a 50 FV grade, he fell out of the Top 100 when concerns about his modest power (45 raw, 40 game) led to his being downgraded to a 45 FV prospect this list cycle. Even so, his feel for sweet spot contact is strong enough to project him to produce at a position-appropriate level.
As the Guardians navigate life without Kwan, Manzardo’s performance will be a key storyline to watch.
