Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
Games 163 will never happen as long as this current playoff format exists. Tiebreakers will be decided by head-to-head and then intraleague records. And so, we’ll know by the end of the weekend who’s going to be in the playoffs, and with what seeding — in the American League, anyway. We’ll get to the scheduling debacle in the National League in a moment.
Here’s what’s still left to be decided entering the final weekend of the regular season:
NL Home-Field Advantage
We know that the Dodgers and Phillies will have first-round byes and home-field advantage for the NLDS; what we don’t yet know is who will have home-field advantage if the two teams meet in the NLCS. Los Angeles will need to finish with the best record in the NL to secure home-field advantage.
NL Wild Cards 2 and 3
Step one’s easy: Wild Card 1 belongs to the Padres, and they’ll host the top finisher among the three teams fighting for the final two spots: the Braves, Mets, and Diamondbacks.
This is where things get complicated. The only way the series would be rendered unnecessary is if the Diamondbacks fall out of the playoff race entirely, handing the Mets and Braves the last two wild card spots.
The Diamondbacks play the Padres for their final three games, with the Braves set to play the Royals in Atlanta and the Mets heading to Milwaukee to face the Brewers.
The only way at least one game of the doubleheader isn’t played is if all of the following happen:
- The Mets win at least two games against the Brewers.
- The Braves win at least two games against the Royals.
- The Diamondbacks lose at least two games against the Padres.
At that point, the Commissioner’s Office may elect to cancel the doubleheader and instead seed the playoffs based on the 160 games the teams have played. It’s also possible just one game of the doubleheader is needed; this would be the case if the Diamondbacks were to clinch over the weekend and the winner of the first game Monday pulls ahead by two games in the standings.
The Braves currently hold the season-series advantage over the Mets, 6-5, so if they end up not playing the doubleheader, Atlanta would earn the better seed and head to San Diego for the first round of the playoffs. The Mets, meanwhile, would stay in Milwaukee and play the Brewers again, this time in the best-of-three Wild Card round.
AL Home-Field Advantage
One of two teams will earn home-field advantage throughout the AL playoffs: The Yankees or the Guardians. New York holds the tiebreaker over Cleveland.
AL Wild Card
The first AL Wild Card spot will almost certainly go to the Orioles, who enter play Friday with a three-game cushion over the Tigers and Royals. Unless the Orioles are swept by the Twins and the Tigers sweep the White Sox, they’ll be hosting the Wild Card series against the no. 5 seed.
And, fortunately for anyone whose head is still spinning from the NL Wild Card section, the other two AL Wild Card races are more understandable and far less convoluted.
The Tigers control their own destiny here; they lost the season series to both the Royals and Twins, so they need to earn a playoff spot outright and be ahead of at least one of the two teams. Fortunately for them, they finish things off against the lowly White Sox.
Minnesota holds the tiebreaker over the other two AL Central clubs competing for the final two Wild Card spots. The Twins, who are now three games back, need to sweep the Orioles and have either the Tigers get swept by the White Sox or the Royals get swept by the Braves to make the playoffs.
As for the Royals, things get a little hairy. The Royals are supposed to be heading to Atlanta to face the Braves, but it’s unclear if they’ll even be able to get there on Friday, considering the situation in Atlanta. If MLB doesn’t pivot to a neutral site series, there could be a doubleheader on Saturday. The Braves and Royals could both be playing for their season in the most unideal of circumstances, and the Braves might have to do it all over again on Monday!
Buckle up, everyone.
