Thanks to an eight-run fifth inning that included Andy Pages‘ first major league home run, the Dodgers beat the Mets 10-0 on Sunday to avoid being swept at home. Even so, they’re off to a sluggish start this season after committing nearly $1 billion in free agent contracts this past winter and pushing their payroll to a club record $314 million. Maybe they’re not the juggernaut that figure suggests, though even given their star-laden roster, they came into this season as a work in progress.
The Dodgers entered Sunday having lost seven of their past nine games. They dropped the finale of a six-game midwest road trip to the Twins, then two of three to the Padres at Chavez Ravine, followed by two of three to the Nationals and two in a row to the Mets. The skid undid a 10-4 start, and they were in danger of — gasp — sinking to .500 had they lost on Sunday.
For the Dodgers, run prevention has been the biggest issue. Even with Sunday’s shutout — their first of the season, with eight dominant innings from Tyler Glasnow and one from Nick Ramirez — they’re allowing 4.54 runs per game, 11th in the National League. While they haven’t allowed runs at that clip over a full season since 2005, they allowed exactly the same number of runs over their first 24 games last year while going 13-11, then picking up the pace and winning 100 games. Déjà vu all over again?
Outside of Glasnow (2.92 ERA, 2.94 FIP), their starting pitching has left something to be desired, with the rest combining for a 4.40 ERA and 3.98 FIP while averaging just 4.20 innings per start. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, whom they signed to a 12-year, $325 million deal in December, was rocked for five runs and chased after one inning in his debut in Seoul on March 21, and while he’s pitched better since, it wasn’t until Friday that he turned in a quality start — and even then, he allowed four runs (one unearned) in six innings.
Yamamoto is carrying a 4.50 ERA but a 3.07 FIP, striking out a robust 32.3% of hitters against a 5.4% walk rate, albeit with a lot of hard contact, with an average exit velo of 90.4 mph, a barrel rate of 14%, and a hard-hit rate of 54.3%; those last two figures rank in the second and fourth percentiles, respectively. His four-seamer has been hammered, and it’s not too big a mystery why: Too many of Yamamoto’s four-seamers are going right down Broadway, and batters are destroying them, with a 25% barrel rate and .710 slugging percentage (more numbers below).
On the SNY broadcast, analyst Ron Darling theorized that Yamamoto may be having trouble adjusting to the different ball; those used in NPB have lower seams and are slightly smaller and tackier, making them easier to grip. That said, Yamamoto’s secondary pitches have performed just fine. The contrast in his Statcast numbers broken down by pitch type is incredible:
Yamamoto by Pitch Type
| Pitch Type | BA | xBA | SLG | xSLG | wOBA | xwOBA | Whiff% | EV | LA | HH% | Barrel% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4-Seam | .355 | .371 | .710 | .665 | .454 | .486 | 20.9 | 96.5 | 14.9 | 67.9 | 25.0 |
| Non-4-Seam | .167 | .182 | .278 | .257 | .220 | .217 | 39.3 | 84.3 | 5.5 | 41.4 | 6.9 |
| Curve | .208 | .212 | .375 | .304 | .254 | .221 | 37.2 | 81.9 | 5.2 | 46.2 | 7.7 |
| Splitter | .115 | .163 | .192 | .226 | .192 | .227 | 42.9 | 86.2 | 5.3 | 38.5 | 7.7 |
| Cutter | .250 | .122 | .250 | .175 | .225 | .124 | 33.3 | 87.1 | 8.0 | 33.3 | 0.0 |
Darling suggested it might take a dozen starts for Yamamoto to adjust. As you can see by his overall stats, he’s missing enough bats to suggest he’ll be fine in the long run — his 26.9% strikeout-to-walk differential ranks fifth in the majors among pitchers with at least 20 innings — but he could continue to experience some growing pains.
James Paxton has been wobbly so far, walking 14 in 16 innings while striking out just 10 and producing a 6.23 FIP. The Dodgers have been giving him extra rest between starts, which may have an impact on his sharpness; his next start on Tuesday against the Nationals will be on eight days of rest. As for the rest of the rotation, it’s a work in progress due to injuries, some of which the Dodgers have planned around (the eventual returns of Walker Buehler and Dustin May from Tommy John surgery and Clayton Kershaw from shoulder surgery), others not so much.
Emmet Sheehan suffered a forearm strain in February and has been shut down from throwing; he’s on the 60-day injured list. Bobby Miller struck out 11 while shutting out the Cardinals for six innings on two hits on March 29, but his next two starts were rocky, and according to manager Dave Roberts, he struggled to recover. The team placed him on the IL with shoulder inflammation; he’s due to start playing catch this week but will need to be built back up, so even in the best-case scenario, he won’t be back until sometime in May.
With Buehler slow-walked this spring in order to limit his innings, the Dodgers have used Gavin Stone, who’s had two reasonably effective starts and two short ones en route to a 6.00 ERA and 3.10 FIP. Landon Knack, a 26-year-old righty, held the Nationals to two runs in five innings in his major league debut last Wednesday and will face them again this Wednesday. To give all the starters extra rest, the team has used Ryan Brasier and Kyle Hurt as openers ahead of lefty Ryan Yarbrough, who’s pitched to a 3.86 ERA but a 5.21 FIP — too many homers, not enough strikeouts — in 21 innings; Hurt’s now on the IL with shoulder inflammation as well. Buehler should be back sometime soon, but he lasted just 2.2 innings on 68 pitches in his most recent start at OKC, his fourth overall; he’ll take another turn on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the bullpen (including Yarbrough) has turned in a 4.35 ERA and 4.64 FIP; the latter mark ranks last in the NL while its -0.1 WAR is second-to-last. Closer Evan Phillips has been stellar, but Brasier and Joe Kelly, the two setup men on which the team spent the most money this winter, have both been shaky. Brasier’s six runs allowed in 9.2 innings matches his total in 38.2 innings after being picked up by the Dodgers last year; he has a 5.59 ERA and 6.31 FIP, Kelly a 7.00 ERA and 3.32 FIP in nine innings. Righty Daniel Hudson has been solid, but the loss of Brusdar Graterol, who’s on the 60-day IL due to shoulder inflammation, looms large. The lack of a reliable lefty is a concern as well, particularly with Alex Vesia walking nine in 11 innings so far.
The team has used a total of 21 pitchers, the third-highest total in the majors behind the Astros’ 23 and the Mets’ 22; it’s a dizzying process of remembering and then forgetting some guys as they’re shuttled between Los Angeles and Oklahoma City. As for the offense, its 117 wRC+ (on .259/.343/.421 hitting) ranks third in the league, but something is getting lost in translation. Not only is the team’s 5.17 runs per game fifth, but by BaseRuns, they’re about a quarter of a run short of their projected 5.41 runs per game (likewise on the pitching side, they project to be allowing just 4.26 runs per game).
Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani are putting up videogame numbers, ranking first and second in the league in wRC+ and WAR (206 and 2.0 for the former, 199 and 1.5 for the latter); they’re on pace for 13.5 WAR and 10.1 WAR, respectively. Even so, Ohtani is just 3-for-22 without an extra-base hit with runners in scoring position…
