Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images
Tuesday night was big for clinching. The Astros secured the AL West, leaving only the AL East and the NL West in play. The Guardians became the first team to clinch a first-round bye, and both the Orioles and Padres clinched playoff berths, the latter by getting the final three outs via a triple play against the Dodgers, a confluence of circumstances unprecedented in major league history.
Where we entered Tuesday with 10 teams fighting for seven remaining berths, we’re down to seven teams battling for four spots. But even with the playoff field not fully set, we thought it would be a fun and worthwhile exercise to highlight various facets of the potential October teams by going around the diamond to identify the strongest and weakest at each position in each league.
As noted in Tuesday’s installment, which focused on the strongest positions among the remaining NL contenders, this is something of an offshoot of my annual Replacement Level Killers series, and in fact, even some confirmed October participants have spots that still fit the bill as true lineup sinkholes — think first base for the Yankees and Brewers — only this time with no trade deadline to help fill them.
For this, I’m considering full-season performance but with an eye to who’s best or worst now, with injuries and adjustments in mind. Unlike the Killers series, I’m also considering pitching, with the shortening of rotations and bullpens factoring into my deliberations. For this installment, I’ll go around the American League, highlighting each position’s best among the remaining contenders. In this case that limits the field to the Yankees, Orioles, Guardians, Tigers, Royals, Twins, Astros, and Mariners, with the last of those admittedly on the ropes, down two and a half games in the Wild Card race, with the Twins half a game ahead of them, and Playoff Odds of just 2.9%.
**Catcher: Cal Raleigh, Mariners**
“Big Dumper” has had a very big season on both sides of the ball. His 31 homers not only leads the Mariners, it leads all catchers, and his 5.1 WAR season makes him just the third catcher of the past two years to reach that plateau, with Adley Rutschman in 2023 and William Contreras (both seasons) the others. His .218/.313/.424 slash line doesn’t scan as particularly impressive, but his 114 wRC+ is comparable to those of the Astros’ Yainer Diaz (118) and the Royals’ Salvador Perez (116), and his defense separates him from that pair. His pitch framing is elite (12.7 runs by FanGraphs, third in the majors, and 13 by Statcast, second in the majors), and he’s average or better in blocking and throwing by Statcast as well.
**First Base: Carlos Santana, Twins**
Here’s the deepest dig for any position, in that Carlos Santana’s 2.8 WAR as a first baseman (i.e., excluding time at other positions) isn’t star level, and three of the seven remaining AL contenders cracked my midseason Replacement Level Killers list, with a fourth that would have made it as well had the team been perceived as a contender then (I won’t spoil the suspense there). As for Santana, the well-traveled 38-year-old switch-hitter has put together his best season since 2019, hitting .234/.322/.415 (110 wRC+) with 22 homers. He’s been exceptional defensively as well, ranking first among all first basemen in FRV (11), and tied for third in DRS (8). If the Twins don’t make the cut, it won’t be his fault.
**Second Base: Jose Altuve, Astros**
One can make a case for the Orioles’ Jordan Westburg (3.0 WAR and a 131 wRC+ in 119 games), but he’s played just two games since returning from a seven-week absence due to a fractured right hand, and has played more games at third (67) than second (49), so I’m sticking with the nine-time All-Star, warts and all. The 34-year-old Jose Altuve has stayed healthy this season, playing in 152 games, his highest total since 2017, and he’s almost certain to surpass that year’s total of 153. That said, his 126 wRC+ (.293/.349/.436) is his lowest full-season mark since 2015, and his 3.7 WAR his lowest since ’13 (both of those depend upon overlooking his miserable 48-game 2020 campaign).
**Shortstop: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals**
Bobby Witt Jr.’s franchise-record 10.3 WAR trails only Aaron Judge’s 10.8 on this year’s leaderboard, and given its centrality to the Royals’ turnaround — their first winning season and (probably) their first playoff appearance since 2015 — he has a solid case for MVP, though I think the big slugger and his 56 homers will carry the day. Still, the 24-year-old superstar has had a marvelous season, hitting .335/.392/.597 (170 wRC+) and becoming the youngest player to go 30-30 twice, with 32 homers and 31 steals this year. He’s also turned in his best set of defensive metrics, including 11 FRV (tied for third in the majors), 3.8 UZR (fifth), and 2 DRS (tied for 10th).
**Third Base: José Ramírez, Guardians**
Ho hum, just another stellar season from José Ramírez, a likely future Hall of Famer. The 32-year-old has set a career high in steals (40) while hitting 37 homers, the latter of which ties him for fifth in the league and still leaves open the possibility that he could sneak into the 40-40 club in the season’s final days. He’s been a bit chase-happy at the plate, swinging at a career-high 31.7% of pitches outside the zone, and his 49.2% swing rate is a career high as well. Still, he’s hitting .275/.332/.521 (136 wRC+) and has paired that with typically strong defense en route to 5.8 WAR, good for sixth in the league.
**Left Field: Riley Greene, Tigers**
This was my toughest call among this group of position players. Among those whose primary position is left field, Riley Greene, Colton Cowser, and Steven Kwan are tied at 3.9 WAR overall. Kwan started the season red-hot, with an atypical burst of power, but since being sidelined for most of May by a left hamstring strain, he’s hit .266/.348/.389 (115 wRC+) in 387 PA. What’s more, he’s got a huge second-half split (165 wRC+ before the All-Star break, 76 since), and he’s been on the IL with mid-back inflammation since September 14; he’s ramping up baseball activities, but isn’t likely to return for more than a minor tuneup before the playoffs. Within this particular context, that’s enough risk to bump him from consideration. Meanwhile, both Cowser and Greene have played the majority of their outfield time in left field, and both have at least one very good defensive metric to go with some strong offensive work despite their high strikeout rates. Greene has the full-season advantage in wRC+ (136 to 120); he’s been limited to 36 games since the All-Star break due to a right hamstring strain that cost him over three weeks, but he’s been the hotter of the two in September, with a 148 to 123 edge in wRC+. In a close call, he’s the one I’m picking here.
**Center Field: Aaron Judge, Yankees**
Nobody expected Judge to put together another season on par with his 62-homer 2022 campaign, not after he missed nearly two months of last year with a right big toe injury, and yet he’s done just that. His 56 homers is no threat to the record books, but it’s his third season with at least 50; the other four players with at least that many have all been connected to performance-enhancing drugs, if you include Babe Ruth’s alleged 1925 injection of testosterone extracted from sheep testicles. Meanwhile, Judge’s 218 wRC+ is 12 points higher than that year’s mark, and his slash stats (.323/.459/.699) are…
