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If you’re into relief pitching and pinch-hitting, boy was Game 3 of the ALDS between the Cleveland Guardians and the Detroit Tigers the game for you. On the surface, it was fairly straightforward, a low-scoring affair that featured good pitching and a couple of timely hits. But look beneath the surface and you’ll see that it was quite a quirky game, one that would be difficult to explain to casuals (not derogatory!). Why was a healthy hitter pulled before he got an at-bat? Why did one of the biggest offensive threats on the Tigers get pulled in the fifth inning? Truly, it was a dream game if you love talking about the intricacies of baseball with your friends. And lucky for me, you’re all my friends today.
Let’s establish a few of the details before we dive into some of the nerdier aspects of Wednesday’s game. The Tigers won 3-0 to take a 2-1 series lead against their division rivals. Just as he had the last few months, A.J. Hinch put his faith in his bullpen, a unit that posted a 3.00 ERA (fourth in the game) in the second half as the Tigers put together the best record in the American League over that stretch. They delievered another superlative performance, and now his team has a chance to close out a playoff series at home Thursday night. Imagine telling Tigers fans that was possible in July!
There are 26 players on each of these flawed but fun AL Central rosters. Realistically, four of those 52 players (the starting pitchers from Games 1 and 2) weren’t going to appear in Game 3 unless it went a gazillion innings, leaving 48 who might see action. The Tigers used six pitchers and the Guardians used seven. Both teams used three pinch-hitters, while the Guardians also called on Austin Hedges as a defensive replacement (he ended up getting an at-bat), making for seven total substitutions between the two teams. Add those hurlers and pinch-hitters to each team’s starting lineup, and you end up with a whopping 38 players used! Not quite every player, but for a nine-inning game, that’s a lot! And all that mixing and matching added a fascinating dimension to the chess game, especially the pinch-hitting.
The first of those moves came surprisingly early. With the right-handed Keider Montero named the starter for Detroit, Will Brennan got the starting nod in right field for the Guardians. Montero threw a clean first inning, after which Hinch turned to the left-handed Brant Hurter to work as the bulk guy. (Hurter excelled in that role in August and September, appearing in 10 games and going at least four innings in relief six times.) With his right fielder set to hit against Hurter at least once, Stephen Vogt moved his first chess piece before Brennan even got a chance to hit, inserting Jhonkensy Noel and his 165 wRC+ (in 63 plate appearances) against lefties into the game. Things didn’t go as Vogt hoped they would. In his first shot against Hurter, Noel chased a changeup out of the zone and ultimately flew out. In his second go-round, he got a dead-red sinker, but only managed a 93-mph can of corn lineout. Noel even got a third opportunity against a lefty when he faced Tyler Holton in the ninth; as he had in the second, he chased a changeup out of the zone, this time producing an easy groundout to third. As good as Noel was against southpaws this season (albeit in a small sample), he was extremely chase prone against lefty changeups. Of the 43 changeups out of the zone he saw from lefties in 2024, he swung at a whopping 28 of them (65.1%). That’s very bad! Holton appeared to be well aware of this, as he executed a clear plan of changeups mostly low and away: So how would we assess Vogt’s gambit? In terms of the results, it obviously didn’t pan out — Noel got three chances and didn’t make the most of them — but it’s better to judge the process. Noel has had success against lefties while Brennan has struggled (.198 wOBA and a 20 wRC+ in 127 career PA versus lefties). Managers have to make decisions that give their team the best chance to win. This seemed like one of those choices, but the lefties Noel faced were able to use their changeups to attack a clear hole in his approach.
As with any chess match, there is always a move in response to your move. A lot of it just comes down to execution, and the Tigers did a better job of executing in multiple facets of the game, including some timely hitting. It started at the top with Parker Meadows. I’ve loved the way Meadows has played this postseason. He’s taking good swings, having quality at-bats, and playing good defense. Leading off Game 3 against Alex Cobb, he ripped a 102-mph grounder to right field on a 2-0 sinker in the zone. Meadows had a .398 wOBA against sinkers this season, so once he saw one, he let it rip. After Kerry Carpenter flew out, a Matt Vierling groundout moved Meadows over, giving Riley Greene a chance to drive him in with two outs. Generally speaking, I admire hitters who are aggressive with runners in scoring position. It’s an old school mentality, but it’s important to get your best swings off and try to get your guy in, especially with two outs. If a pitch is slightly out of the zone but your timing is right and you see it well, have at it. That’s exactly what Greene did, attacking a 1-1 splitter fading out of the zone: The ball left the bat at 105 mph, scoring Meadows. That’s exactly what you want from your best player.
In the third inning, with Jake Rogers on third with one out, Vierling delivered a quality at-bat, flying out deep enough to left for a sacrifice fly. After that, the bats were quiet on both sides despite multiple run scoring opportunities. When Spencer Torkelson came to bat with Colt Keith on second in the sixth, it was a chance for him to flip the script, not only on the subpar swings in his previous at-bats — he had struck out against Cobb and later Erik Sabrowski — but his hitless postseason performance overall. After he got ahead 2-1 against Eli Morgan, he attacked a four-seamer at the top of the zone, hitting the ball hard enough for it to find some grass in the outfield for a double: It wasn’t his best swing, but it was good enough to get the job done and score Keith. It also put a big insurance run on the board, though that extra cushion didn’t prove necessary.
The Tigers bullpen was nails. The Guardians put runners on first and second in the seventh, but failed to capitalize, and they went down in order in the eighth and ninth innings. Detroit’s six pitchers combined for six strikeouts and two walks, and hardly allowed any barrels. While the Guardians had eight hard-hit balls on the night, only three were hit in the sweet-spot range of eight to 32 degrees. After Hurter delivered 3.1 innings in the bulk role, Beau Brieske, Sean Guenther, Will Vest, and Holton only allowed one hit combined. Hinch pressed the right buttons all night, including when he pinch-hit for Carpenter. Despite Carpenter’s fantastic career numbers against right-handed hitters (148 wRC+), he still hasn’t figured out how to adapt his swing to southpaws (career 69 wRC+). As much as it stinks to take away one of your biggest threats against righties early in a game, it’s a decision that Hinch has had to make all year, and he has stuck to that approach so far these playoffs. When Carpenter came to bat in the fifth against a lefty, he was pulled for Justyn-Henry Malloy, who drew a walk on five pitches. Knowing how Hinch will likely act if Carpenter comes to bat against a lefty, I’ll be very interested to see how aggressive Vogt is in trying to…
