LOS ANGELES — The killer feature of a pitcher like Sean Manaea, circa October 2024, is the capacity to deceive. As has been documented at length, Manaea changed his arm angle midseason, dropping down from 28 degrees in April to 15 degrees by September. That move paid immediate dividends; Manaea dominated for the New York Mets down the stretch and excelled in the postseason.
Because Manaea now throws from an arm angle so low to the ground, his high fastballs come in at an extremely flat vertical approach angle. A flat VAA distorts the hitter’s perception, creating the illusion of “rise.” Squaring up a high fastball thrown from that angle with a flat swing requires incredible precision. If the bat is a few millimeters high, the hitter will drive the ball into the ground; a few millimeters low, and you’ve got a harmless popup. No matter for Tommy Edman.
In the third inning of Game 6 of the National League Championship Series, Manaea whipped a four-seamer with a -3.78 degree VAA to the tippy top of the zone; Edman ripped it into the left field bleachers for a two-run home run, effectively knocking Manaea out of the game. Edman racked up four RBI on Sunday, powering the Los Angeles Dodgers to a 10-5 victory and sending them to face the New York Yankees in the World Series.
The “familiarity effect” is well-known and has loomed over significant moments in this postseason, most recently in Hunter Gaddis‘ third encounter with Juan Soto. For a pitcher like Manaea who relies on a deceptive look, the familiarity effect must be even more devastating. It stands to reason that multiple encounters with the same pitcher over the course of a week will disproportionately impact one who owes much of their success to an unusual look.
“It’s just a different look, that the more familiar you get with it, the better you have a chance,” said Dodgers manager Dave Roberts prior to Game 6. Roberts, not for the first time in this series, anticipated the events to come. Manaea was in trouble from the get-go; the tall lefty allowed six hits, two walks, and five runs across two innings, putting the Mets in a hole they couldn’t climb out of.
Meanwhile, the Dodgers bullpen, deployed in lieu of a starter to take care of all nine innings, did just enough. The Mets constantly threatened, putting 16 runners on base. But their big breakthrough never came, and resident sweeper wizard Blake Treinen shut the door, recording the last six outs to send the Dodgers to the Fall Classic.
From the start, Game 6 mirrored Game 2, when the Mets started Manaea and the Dodgers countered with a bullpen game. The Dodgers did not enjoy their initial encounter with Manaea; before running out of steam in the sixth, he held them scoreless for five dominant innings, striking out seven.
Notably, he dominated Shohei Ohtani, flustering the titanic left-hander with a steady diet of sinkers in on his hands. Ohtani’s swing looked uncertain, tentative, like he couldn’t get a good look at where the ball might be coming from. Meanwhile, the Dodgers’ bullpen effort blew up almost immediately; Roberts opted to go to Landon Knack in the second inning, and Knack proceeded to give up five runs and effectively put the game out of reach.
