We’re back today with NBA playoff basketball featuring the Celtics and Mavericks in the NBA Playoff Finals. With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every game to expertly pinpoint our best playoff player bets for tonight’s slate.
1. DERRICK WHITE OVER 4.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+124)
Odds: +124
Probability: 57.8%
Projection: 5.9
Edge: 13.2%
Game: Celtics vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA player prop bet for game one of the finals. The best player bet takes place in the Celtics vs Mavericks, with Derrick White showing value in the over assists prop market. Our model has narrowed down Derrick White Over 4.5 Total Assists as the best player bet for today.
Throughout the 23/24 postseason, White has been able to rack up an average of 4.4 assists per game. Over the course of the conference finals, White was able to exceed this line in 3/4 games, racking up 4/7/6/9 assists respectively. In the regular season against the Mavericks, White has been able to average 4.5 assists per game. When playing them in the finals, White has been able to exceed this line 1/2 times with him racking up 5 assists in the first game of the series. Tonight is expected to go similarly with White moving the ball around to the best scoring matchups, particularly as Tatum looks to get head down to the rim, scoring heavily to silence the critics.
Our model recommends placing a wager on Derrick White Over 4.5 Total Assists at +124 odds and an attractive 13.2% edge through Draftkings Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. KYRIE IRVING OVER 2.5 3-POINTERS MADE (+100)
Odds: +100
Probability: 60.7%
Projection: 3.6
Edge: 10.7%
Game: Celtics vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s playoff slate takes place in the Celtics vs Mavericks game, with Kyrie Irving showing value in the over 3-pointers prop market. Irving has averaged 3.0 3-pointers per game on the season, and has averaged 2.4 3pm per game in the 23/24 postseason. In the first two matchups against the Celtics, Kyrie fell apart, going 0/8 combined on 3-pointers at the Garden. With the Mavs being back on their home court, our model suspects that he will right the ship. The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Kyrie Irving Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made, with an edge of 10.7% at +100 odds available on Fanduel Sportsbook.
3. LUKA DONCIC OVER 9.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+124)
Odds: +124
Probability: 52.6%
Projection: 9.9
Edge: 7.6%
Game: Celtics vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
The next best NBA playoff player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing also comes in the Celtics vs Mavericks game, with Luka Doncic showing value in the over assists prop market. Throughout the 23/24 season Luka has been able to average 9.8 assists per game, with our model projecting him to rack up 9.9 assists in tonight’s matchup. Thought the playoffs, Luka has averaged 8.5 APG. Against the Celtics in the regular season, Luka averaged 12 APG through only two games. In G2 of the finals, he had 11 assists, and was the most dominant player on the floor despite the loss. Our model projects he will rack up 9.9 tonight. The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Luka Doncic Over 9.5 Total Assists in tonight’s game, which gives us an 7.6% edge on the +124 odds currently available at Draftkings Sportsbook.
4. KYRIE IRVING OVER 23.5 POINTS SCORED (+136)
Odds: +136
Probability: 57.2%
Projection: 27
Edge: 6%
Game: Celtics vs Mavericks (8:30PM EST)
According to our model, the last best player prop bet for the NBA tonight features Kyrie Irving in the Celtics vs Mavericks showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Points Scored. Over the course of the 2023/24 postseason Irving has averaged 21.9 points per game, with a 27 point average against the Timberwolves in the WCF. In the first two games against the Celtics in the finals, Kyrie has not been playing well. Our model suspects that after two tough losses and going 7-18 and 6-19 shooting respectively, he will regress to the mean, and cook Boston tonight in front of a loud Dallas fanbase on their home court.
Our model projects that Irving will get a total of 27 points by the end of the game, leading to his over. Our model highly recommends placing a wager on Irving over points. Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Kyrie Irving Over 23.5 Points Scored, with a detected edge of 6% and +132 odds on BetMGM Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you. Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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