We’re back today with another exciting NBA playoff slate featuring some of our favorite matchups here at Basketball Forever.
With the help of advanced simulations and machine learning, our Basketball Forever bot has run thousands of simulations on every NBA playoff game to expertly pinpoint our best player bets for tonight.
1. TYRESE MAXEY OVER 6.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+124)
Odds: +124
Probability: 60.2%
Projection: 8.3
Edge: 15.6%
Game: Knicks vs 76ers (7:30PM EST)
Our Basketball Forever betting bot has identified the best NBA playoff player prop bet for today’s NBA matchups. The best player bet takes place in the Knicks vs 76ers matchup, with Tyrese Maxey showing value in the total assist market.
Our model has narrowed down Tyrese Maxey Over 6.5 Total Assists as the best player bet for today. Over the course of the last 10 regular season games, Maxey has been able to hold a solid average of 6.9 APG, with a 6.2 APG average throughout the entire 23/24 season.
Our model suspects that Maxey will continue sharing the rock in a must-win game tonight. He had 10 assists last start, and this number is a little low. Our model recommends placing a wager on Tyrese Maxey Over 6.5 Total Assists at +125 odds and an attractive 15.6% edge through Fanduel Sportsbook, making this our best player bet of the day.
2. JOEL EMBIID OVER 5.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (+124)
Odds: +124
Probability: 57.3%
Projection: 6.8
Edge: 12.7%
Game: Knicks vs 76ers (7:30PM EST)
According to our model, another best player prop bet for today’s NBA playoff slate takes place in the Knicks vs 76ers game, with Joel Embiid showing value in the over assists market. Embiid averages 5.6 assists per game on the season and has averaged 6 assists during the postseason.
With Embiid on the court, he should attract significant defensive attention, allowing him to kick out of double teams to open shooters. Through the last 5 games, both regular and postseason, Embiid has been able to exceed this assist line in 4/5 games, getting 6/6/7/8/1 in each game.
Our model believes that this is the closest thing to a no-sweat bet for tonight’s NBA playoff slate. The Basketball Forever betting bot recommends placing a wager on Joel Embiid Over 5.5 Total Assists, with an edge of 12.7% at +124 odds available on Fanduel Sportsbook.
3. TOBIAS HARRIS OVER 2.5 TOTAL ASSISTS (-120)
Odds: -120
Probability: 59.6%
Projection: 4.2
Edge: 5%
Game: Knicks vs 76ers (7:30PM EST)
The next NBA player prop bet our betting bot recommends playing comes in the Knicks vs 76ers game, with Tobias Harris showing value in the over assists prop market. Throughout the 23/24 season, Harris has been able to average 3.1 APG.
Over the course of the last 5 games, Harris has been able to beat this line 3/5 times getting 3/2/2/3/4 assists in each game. Against the Knicks, Harris racks up an average of 2.5 assists, with our model projecting a total of 4.2 assists in tonight’s game.
The Basketball Forever betting bot predicts Tobias Harris Over 2.5 Total Assists in tonight’s game, which gives us a 5% edge on the -120 odds currently available at Fanduel Sportsbook.
4. KELLY OUBRE OVER 10.5 POINTS SCORED (+102)
Odds: +102
Probability: 58.8%
Projection: 14.9
Edge: 9.3%
Game: Knicks vs 76ers (7:30PM EST)
According to our model, the last best NBA playoff player prop bet for tonight features Kelly Oubre in the Knicks vs 76ers showdown. Our betting bot has found value in Kelly Oubre Over 10.5 Points Scored.
Over the course of the 2023/24 season, Oubre has averaged 15.4 points per game. Our model predicts that Kelly Oubre will be able to exceed this line – predicting 14.9 total points in tonight’s matchup. He has been passive through the first two games of the series, but expect him to bounce back in front of a raucous home crowd tonight.
Our Basketball Forever betting bot highly recommends wagering on Kelly Oubre Over 10.5 Points Scored, with a detected edge of 9.3% and +102 odds on Fanduel Sportsbook.
What Is an Edge in NBA Betting?
An edge occurs when the Dimers.com prediction model projects the probability of an event to be higher than the best odds available with the U.S Sportsbooks. Essentially, it means that the Dimers/Basketball Forever NBA model projects that a bet has a better chance of cashing than the sportsbooks do. That’s why the higher the edge, the better for you. Although an edge does not guarantee a win, consistently taking picks with a higher betting edge can increase your chances of being a profitable bettor in the long run. This is an essential aspect of successful sports betting.
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