David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports
One of the most frequent questions I receive about ZiPS is folks wondering how the long-term projections for X hitter or Y pitcher have changed compared to what they were preseason. Since we’re right around the midpoint of the season, this is a good time to review just how the first half of the 2024 season has shifted expectations for individual players. The methodology I’m using is simple: comparing the current 2025-2029 WAR projections versus the 2025-2029 WAR projections as predicted at the start of the season. I’ve only included good prospects and players who are currently relevant to the majors (or injured) so we don’t get a bunch of random Double-A pitchers who are slightly more or less below replacement level than they used to be gumming things up. I’m also not including the pitchers who’d be on the list because of season-ending injuries; a list of 15 pitchers who have worse long-term outlooks because they’re out for the season with Tommy John surgery or thoracic outlet syndrome isn’t particularly interesting. Since I’m such a cheerful and upbeat fellow, let’s start with the gainers. I’m also including each player’s updated top three comps, because comps are fun, even if the individual players listed don’t really mean a lot to the projection. At the very least, it contextualizes expectations in a non-WAR manner:
**ZiPS Gainers – Pitchers (2025-2029 WAR)**
**Garrett Crochet:**
Garrett Crochet is one of the biggest names likely to move this month, and he’s at the top of the most improved list. Some of this is simply more projected innings as a result of his conversion to the rotation – an unusually canny White Sox gamble – but more of it is due to simply dispelling concerns. Crochet had forearm tightness as early as the 2020 playoffs and then missed 2022 and most of 2023 due to Tommy John surgery. His brief return to the Pale Hose last year was solid only if you stop looking at his stats after your eyes hit the decent ERA. But he’s been legitimately excellent as a full-time starter this year. In a lot of ways, his success runs a parallel to another similar gamble the White Sox made a little more than a decade ago, when they moved Chris Sale to the rotation. As was the case with Sale, many predicted disaster for Crochet. His next team likely will monitor his innings because, well, all teams protect their starting pitchers these days. Between Crochet and Sale, maybe the White Sox have found an unusual market efficiency: pitchers with last names from the JOANN Fabrics word cloud. This projection includes Crochet’s dominant start against the Rockies on Sunday. Two scoreless outings that lasted just five innings are Crochet’s only non-quality starts since April.
**ZiPS Projection – Garrett Crochet**
Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR
—|—|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-
2025 | 8 | 5 | 3.26 | 47 | 15 | 113.3 | 86 | 41 | 12 | 39 | 148 | 133 | 2.9
2026 | 8 | 5 | 3.21 | 48 | 15 | 115.0 | 87 | 41 | 12 | 38 | 148 | 134 | 3.0
2027 | 8 | 5 | 3.25 | 48 | 15 | 119.0 | 91 | 43 | 13 | 38 | 149 | 133 | 3.1
2028 | 8 | 5 | 3.29 | 49 | 15 | 117.7 | 92 | 43 | 13 | 37 | 145 | 131 | 3.0
2029 | 8 | 5 | 3.38 | 49 | 15 | 117.3 | 93 | 44 | 13 | 37 | 141 | 128 | 2.8
2030 | 8 | 5 | 3.48 | 48 | 15 | 113.7 | 92 | 44 | 13 | 36 | 134 | 124 | 2.6
The Tigers may be in the midst of a disappointing season, but that’s definitely not Tarik Skubal’s fault. Skubal is less likely to be moved at the deadline than Crochet, simply because I expect Detroit still hopes to contend while he’s cost controlled. Skubal’s repertoire fascinates me. While it’s fairly typical for pitchers to throw a lot fewer offspeed pitches with the platoon advantage, he also largely sheds his four-seamer as well. Instead, he throws sinker all over the zone as he transforms into a hard-throwing southpaw relief bully against lefties. Facing righties, he uses the whole kitchen sink, using the sinker then to threaten batters with broken fingers or hands. Skubal’s a legitimate Cy Young contender, and the further we get away from the flexor tendon surgery that kept him out from August of 2022 until last July, the less we should worry about his health mucking things up. Skubal’s teammate Jack Flaherty just missed the top 15 here, because even as he struggled in recent years, ZiPS hadn’t totally given up on the former Cardinal.
**ZiPS Projection – Tarik Skubal**
Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR
—|—|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-
2025 | 6 | 5 | 3.19 | 25 | 25 | 141.0 | 120 | 50 | 13 | 31 | 149 | 133 | 3.4
2026 | 6 | 5 | 3.26 | 25 | 25 | 141.0 | 123 | 51 | 13 | 30 | 145 | 130 | 3.3
2027 | 7 | 5 | 3.38 | 26 | 26 | 151.7 | 135 | 57 | 14 | 32 | 152 | 125 | 3.4
2028 | 7 | 5 | 3.48 | 28 | 28 | 155.3 | 141 | 60 | 15 | 33 | 151 | 122 | 3.3
2029 | 6 | 6 | 3.61 | 28 | 28 | 152.0 | 143 | 61 | 16 | 33 | 144 | 117 | 3.0
2030 | 6 | 6 | 3.83 | 27 | 27 | 145.7 | 142 | 62 | 17 | 32 | 135 | 111 | 2.6
Tanner Houck is the best result of Boston’s apparent initiative to proselytize the virtues of split-fingered fastballs. He is probably never going to be a starter who whiffs 12 batters per nine, but he does the other fundamentals well; he throws a lot of first-pitch strikes, avoids walks, and induces enough grounders to keep the ball in the park. He’s certainly a candidate to sign an extension with Boston. Like Skubal, Houck has a teammate who just missed this list, Kutter Crawford.
**ZiPS Projection – Tanner Houck**
Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR
—|—|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-
2025 | 9 | 7 | 3.97 | 28 | 25 | 143.0 | 133 | 63 | 15 | 40 | 142 | 112 | 2.7
2026 | 9 | 7 | 4.01 | 28 | 25 | 143.7 | 136 | 64 | 15 | 40 | 139 | 111 | 2.6
2027 | 8 | 8 | 4.16 | 27 | 24 | 142.7 | 140 | 66 | 16 | 40 | 135 | 106 | 2.4
2028 | 8 | 8 | 4.30 | 27 | 23 | 136.0 | 137 | 65 | 16 | 39 | 126 | 103 | 2.1
2029 | 8 | 7 | 4.43 | 27 | 23 | 132.0 | 138 | 65 | 17 | 38 | 119 | 100 | 1.8
2030 | 6 | 8 | 4.70 | 24 | 21 | 118.7 | 128 | 62 | 16 | 36 | 104 | 94 | 1.4
I’m still not sure how Reynaldo López is doing it, as he’s basically a fastball-slider pitcher with only occasional cameos from his curve and changeup. I was skeptical coming into the season, but taking a bit off his slider has worked wonders; he’s added several inches of drop to the pitch from the past. It’s hard to overestimate his value to the Braves this year. With Spencer Strider out for the season, a failure of López in his return to starting likely would have had some fairly serious repercussions to the rotation. ZiPS is still hedging a bit on his starter/relief status, but it doesn’t make a big difference in the projections.
**ZiPS Projection – Reynaldo López**
Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR
—|—|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-|—-
2025 | 6 | 3 | 3.50 | 42 | 15 | 105.3 | 92 | 41 | 12 | 39 | 110 | 124 | 2.7
2026 | 6 | 3 | 3.67 | 39 | 14 | 98.0 | 88 | 40 | 12 | 38 | 100 | 118 | 2.4
2027 | 5 | 3 | 3.76 | 36 | 13 | 91.0 | 83 | 38 | 11 | 36 | 91 | 116 | 2.0
2028 | 5 | 3 | 3.98 | 34 | 12 | 81.3 | 77 | 36 | 11 | 35 | 80 | 109 | 1.6
2029 | 4 | 3 | 4.15 | 33 | 12 | 78.0 | 76 | 36 | 11 | 36 | 74 | 105 | 1.3
2030 | 4 | 3 | 4.54 | 30 | 11 | 69.3 | 72 | 35 | 11 | 35 | 64 | 96 | 0.8
I wrote about Cristopher Sánchez last week, so you can get more on him from the original article. His teammate Ranger Suárez has nearly put himself into the same tier as Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola, and if the season ended today, I’d likely pick Suárez if I were a Cy Young voter. Like Houck, Suárez is a fundamentally sound pitcher, and his plate discipline stats largely support his being one of the lowest walk pitchers in baseball. Suárez, who is scheduled to reach free agency after next season, has earned a lot on his next contract because of this year’s performance.
