Wild Card Berth Likely, AFC North Still Within Reach?

Despite starting four different quarterbacks thus far in 2023, the Cleveland Browns remain at the top of the AFC Wild Card standings and enter Week 15 with a chance to make up ground on the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North.

What do the Browns’ playoff scenarios look like in Week 15? With assistance from PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor, let’s determine Cleveland’s playoff chances and suss out what needs to happen for the Browns this weekend.

Cleveland Browns’ Playoff Chances Entering Week 15

Nearly everything went right for the Browns last week. Joe Flacco delivered another solid performance under center, allowing Cleveland to take down the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Other AFC contenders like the Kansas City Chiefs, Miami Dolphins, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, and Pittsburgh Steelers fell in Week 15.

MORE: Cleveland Browns Depth Chart

The Ravens pulled out an overtime victory against the Los Angeles Rams, so they didn’t cede any games to the Browns. But since almost everything fell Cleveland’s way, ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) now gives the Browns an 80.2% chance of making the playoffs.

At 8-6, Cleveland is sitting in the fifth seed and has a one-game lead over every other AFC Wild Card hopeful. Still, given that 14 of the AFC’s 16 teams have between five and nine wins, the Browns’ scenarios could change quickly.

Cleveland’s best-case Week 15 scenario would have involved the Minnesota Vikings beating the Cincinnati Bengals and the Steelers taking down the Colts, but neither of those games went the Browns’ way on Saturday.

But Cleveland can still root for the Texans and Buffalo Bills to lose on Sunday. In that case, the Browns would open up a two-game lead on every AFC Wild Card contender except for the Bengals and Colts, both of whom are already 8-6.

If Houston and Buffalo lose in Week 15 while Cleveland wins, the Browns’ playoff chances would increase to roughly 94%, making them a virtual lock. Still, Cleveland would not have officially clinched a postseason berth in that situation.

Can the Browns Still Win the AFC North?

Technically, Cleveland still has a shot at the AFC North crown. But given that the Browns are two games behind the Ravens with four weeks remaining in the regular season, its odds are understandably thin. FPI gives Kevin Stefanski’s club just a 9% chance of overtaking Baltimore.

First, Cleveland must erase the two-game gap between them and Baltimore. At that point, the NFL’s playoff tiebreakers would come into play. Because the Browns and Ravens have already split their season series, conference record, followed by record against common opponents, would determine who wins the AFC North.

Therefore, Cleveland needs to stay alive in the division through Week 18. If the Browns beat the Cincinnati Bengals while the Ravens fall to the Pittsburgh Steelers in the regular-season finale, Cleveland would have the divisional record (4-2 vs. 3-3).

If the two teams end up tied on overall and divisional records, then common games would be the next tiebreaker. The Browns are currently 7-3 against common opponents, while the Ravens are 7-2.

Conference records would come into play if Cleveland and Baltimore end up tied against common opponents. Both clubs are currently 6-3 in the AFC.

In a scenario in which the Browns and Ravens were still tied after going through all those tiebreakers, the AFC North could be decided by strength of victory or strength of schedule. While Cleveland currently enjoys a slight lead in both categories, nothing is set in stone with a month remaining in the regular season.

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