Will the Jaguars, Texans, or Colts Emerge Atop the Division?

The AFC South heads into the final two games with three teams still having division-clinching playoff scenarios. With the Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Houston Texans all tied at 9-7 entering the week, all three of them could take home the division crown at the end of Week 18.

AFC South Playoff Chances | Week 18 Update

Note that this article was originally published on Jan. 6 and 9:10 a.m. before Saturday’s games began. The results of this week’s games are below and will continue to be updated throughout the day.

After the Saturday games in Week 18, the Texans are now the No. 4 seed in the AFC, while the Jaguars fall to the No. 8 seed. The Colts have officially been eliminated from playoff contention.

Saturday Games Update
Steelers (10-7) defeated Ravens (13-4)
Texans (10-7) defeated Colts (9-8)

Keep reading below to see the playoff scenarios for the AFC South entering Week 18. And head over to PFN’s free NFL Playoff Predictor to test various scenarios and see how they change the playoff picture.

What Are the AFC South Playoff Scenarios and Chances for the Jaguars, Texans, and Colts?

As we head into Week 18, control of the division belongs to Jacksonville, but both Houston and Indianapolis have the opportunity to put them under pressure on Saturday. The winner of the Texans vs. Colts matchup on Saturday will be in prime position to capitalize if the Jaguars slip up on Sunday.

However, regardless of the results on Saturday, Jacksonville knows that a win on Sunday against the Tennessee Titans will see it take home the division title. Additionally, if Houston and Indianapolis tie, the Jaguars will know that avoiding defeat is enough for them to win the division.

Here are the full AFC South scenarios for the Jaguars in Week 18:

• Jacksonville defeats Tennessee
• Jacksonville and Tennessee tie, and Houston vs. Indianapolis ends in a tie

The Jaguars have NFL playoff tiebreaker advantages over both the Colts and Texans. Therefore, regardless of the outcome on Saturday, the Jaguars can still top the division.

If all three teams tie, then Jacksonville would take the division thanks to a 3-1 head-to-head record compared to 1-2-1 for the Colts and Texans.

Jacksonville beat Indianapolis in Week 1 and Week 6, ensuring they would have a 2-0 head-to-head over their division rivals. Thanks to splitting their season series 1-1 with the Texans, that ensured neither team could surpass them in a three-way head-to-head tiebreaker.

Even in a two-way tiebreaker, the Jaguars would have the advantage over both of their opponents. They have that 2-0 head-to-head over the Colts, and they’re now assured of a superior division record to the Texans if the two teams finished tied in terms of overall record.

If the Jaguars fail to win, then the winner of the Texans vs. Colts matchup would take the division based on a superior overall record to the other.

MORE: NFL Week 18 Injuries

However, the Colts have control of the head-to-head with the Texans in the event of a tie. That is because the Colts defeated the Texans way back in Week 2, meaning a tie would leave them with a 1-0-1 head-to-head advantage over Houston.

The Colts’ scenarios to clinch the AFC South in Week 18 are:

• Indianapolis defeats Houston, and Jacksonville fails to win
• Indianapolis and Houston tie, and Jacksonville loses to Tennessee

That means the Texans only have one path to winning the AFC South. They have to win and hope the Jaguars fail to win against Tennessee.

The Texans’ scenario to clinch the AFC South in Week 18 is:

• Houston defeats Indianapolis, and Jacksonville fails to win

Based on simulations of the PFN Playoff Predictor, the Jaguars have around a 70% chance of winning the AFC South while the Colts and Texans have close to an equal chance at just below 15%. Whoever wins the AFC South will host the Cleveland Browns on Wild Card Weekend.

Can Any AFC South Teams Earn a Wild Card Spot?

At the end of Week 18, any of the three AFC South teams could find themselves in a Wild Card spot. At most, two teams from the division can make it to the postseason.

Of the three teams, only the Jaguars can get a Wild Card spot with a loss, while both the Texans and Colts need to at least tie for that to be in play.

MORE: PFN’s Week 18 NFL Power Rankings

However, Indianapolis and Houston can both assure themselves a playoff spot on Saturday with a win. Whoever wins will know they at least have the seventh seed guaranteed, while knowing they could still end Week 18 as either the fourth or sixth seed depending on other results.

The Jaguars scenarios for clinching a Wild Card spot are:

• Jacksonville ties with Tennessee and Pittsburgh fails to win
• Pittsburgh loses, Denver fails to win, and Houston loses
• Pittsburgh loses, Denver fails to win, and Indianapolis loses

The Colts scenarios for clinching a Wild Card spot are:

• Indianapolis defeats Houston, and Jacksonville defeats Tennessee
• Indianapolis and Houston tie, Jacksonville avoids defeat, and Pittsburgh fails to win

The Texans scenarios for clinching a Wild Card spot are:

• Houston defeats Indianapolis, and Jacksonville defeats Tennessee
• Houston and Indianapolis tie, Jacksonville loses to Tennessee, and Pittsburgh fails to win

Finishing as the sixth seed would see the AFC South team travel to Kansas City to face the Chiefs on Wild Card Weekend. Meanwhile, finishing as the seventh seed will see them traveling to either Miami or Buffalo, depending on who wins the AFC East.

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