Welcome back to Top of the Order, where every Tuesday and Friday I’ll be starting your baseball day with some news, notes, and thoughts about the game we love.
No division race is tighter than the AL East, with the Yankees leading the Orioles by just 1.5 games ahead of their three-game matchup that begins tonight in the Bronx. Both teams are virtual locks to make the playoffs, but securing the division title is crucial because of the almost-certain bye that would come with it. This is a fierce race that looks like it’ll go down to the wire, but these head-to-head games might not be as important for their divisional hopes as their off-the-field showdown leading up to the trade deadline.
While the Orioles and Yankees won’t have much overlap in terms of trade needs — and as such won’t be competing for many of the same players — they’re obviously competing to get better and build more complete rosters so they can outlast the other and make a deep October run. The thing is, considering there are only five teams right now that are out of the playoff picture — the White Sox, Marlins, Athletics, Rockies, and Angels — actual upgrades available on the trading block might be in short supply. That means the Yankees and Orioles will need to capitalize on whatever improvements they can make. This environment could set the stage for New York and Baltimore to be among the most active teams over the next month and a half.
The Yankees have arguably the two best hitters in the entire league in Aaron Judge and Juan Soto. Anthony Volpe’s flattened swing path has helped him cut down on his strikeout rate and spray more hits to the opposite field, but this month his strikeout rate is back up to 27% and he hasn’t walked since May 30. The catching duo of Jose Trevino and Austin Wells has come around too, though Trevino’s throwing issues were firmly on display on Sunday, when the Red Sox stole nine bases against him. The Yankees will need to find replacements for injured players like Anthony Rizzo.
The Orioles, on the other hand, have gotten strong production up and down the lineup, with the exception of Cedric Mullins. Their pitching, however, has been hammered by injuries. AL Cy Young frontrunner Corbin Burnes leads their rotation, but they will need to make acquisitions to strengthen their starting pitching depth.
Both teams will be looking to bolster their bullpens as well, with back-end duos established but needing further depth. With excellent farm systems, the Yankees and Orioles have the ability to overpay for relief arms without sacrificing long-term success.
The two teams have differing payroll situations, with the Yankees possibly looking to decrease payroll in the future while the Orioles have more flexibility to spend under new ownership. This sets the stage for potential trade scenarios leading up to the deadline over the next six weeks. In the meantime, the battle for the AL East begins tonight as these two teams fight for division supremacy.
