Carlos Alcaraz and Alex de Minaur are set to ignite the 2025 Nitto ATP Finals with their opening match in Group Jimmy Connors on Sunday in Turin. This clash marks the beginning of a highly anticipated tournament where both players will be eager to make a statement.
As it stands, Alcaraz holds the upper hand in their head-to-head encounters, leading 4-0. However, their past meetings reveal a competitive edge, with De Minaur having taken Alcaraz to a final set multiple times. Notably, during their previous indoor hard-court matchup in Rotterdam earlier this year, Alcaraz prevailed with a score of 6-4, 3-6, 6-2. Their 2022 battle in Barcelona also showcased De Minaur’s resilience, as he pushed Alcaraz to the limit, only to suffer a narrow defeat after holding a match point.
De Minaur, currently ranked seventh in the world, enters the finals with renewed confidence after a successful season that saw him clinch an ATP 500 title in Washington, D.C., and reach the quarterfinals in both hard-court Grand Slam events this year. His impressive form has continued into the fall season, where he has consistently advanced to the quarterfinals in his recent tournaments.
In contrast, the recently crowned world No. 2, Alcaraz, has experienced a rollercoaster of results since the U.S. Open, including a mixed performance at the Laver Cup, a title win in Tokyo, and an unexpected early exit at the Paris Masters against Cameron Norrie.
Both players will be looking to shake off their previous struggles in Turin. Alcaraz, who has participated in the year-end championships twice, sports a record of 3-4 overall and has notably struggled in opening matches, having lost both of his first encounters, including a disappointing defeat to Casper Ruud last year. Meanwhile, De Minaur also faced challenges in his debut at the finals last fall, going winless in three matches.
As the stage is set for their encounter, it becomes clear that while Alcaraz may be favored due to his higher ranking and past victories, the unpredictability of tennis suggests that De Minaur could very well pull off an upset. The outcome of this match remains uncertain, and it could ultimately set the tone for the rest of the tournament. Given the stakes, expect a thrilling battle where both athletes bring their best to the court.
Prediction: De Minaur in three sets.
