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Rafael Nadal seemed to have a favorable draw for his first tournament in more than 11 months when the field of 32 at the Brisbane International was revealed on Saturday. That changed in a big way when the qualifiers were placed in the bracket on Sunday.
Nadal drew arguably the toughest and definitely the biggest name of the six qualifiers–none other than 2020 U.S. Open champion and former world No. 3 Dominic Thiem. The two slam winners and familiar foes will face each other for the 16th time in their illustrious careers and for the first time since 2020 when they clash in a blockbuster Brisbane first-rounder on Tuesday.
That Thiem managed to play his way into this showdown is a minor miracle. Although the 30-year-old was a heavy favorite in his first qualifying match, he was all but out of the tournament when he trailed James McCabe 2-5, 3-5, 0-40. From three match points down in the second set, Thiem somehow stormed back for a 2-6, 7-6(4), 6-4 victory. He then defeated Giulio Zeppieri 3-6, 6-4, 6-4 on Sunday.
The Austrian’s reward is yet another matchup with Nadal, who leads the head-to-head series 9-6. Of course, this contest has a much different feel from when they were battling each other at the top of the sport for the biggest prizes in tennis. Thiem’s comeback from a wrist injury rarely gained any traction in 2023, while Nadal missed the entirety of last season following the Australian Open because of a hip problem.
Needless to say, it is hard to know what to expect on Tuesday–especially from Nadal’s side of the court. By all accounts Nadal is healthy and playing well in practice; the 37-year-old Spaniard also warmed up with a doubles match on Sunday partnering compatriot Marc Lopez (lost to Max Purcell and Jordan Thompson 6-4, 6-4). Thiem isn’t rusty, but his three-set scares against both McCabe and Zeppieri are hardly encouraging.
Based mainly on Thiem’s struggles not only in qualifying but also dating back to last season, there should be optimism that Nadal can begin his comeback with a marquee, headline-making win.
Pick: Nadal in 3
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