Could Arsenal’s Impressive Run Be Affected by Complacency?
Ale Moreno and Steve Nicol share insights on Arsenal’s strong start to the season following their 3-0 victory in the Champions League.
Bill Connelly, ESPN Writer
November 6, 2025, 08:58 AM ET
One key criticism of the revamped Champions League format, which features a single large table of 36 teams instead of groups, is that it complicates the understanding of stakes week-by-week. This concern holds some validity. After the first half of the 2025-26 Champions League league phase, significant changes have occurred since the tournament’s commencement two months ago.
Liverpool had a rough start but appeared to find their rhythm again with a recent victory over Real Madrid. Meanwhile, Arsenal’s chances of claiming both the Premier League and the Champions League continue to grow. Bayern Munich is demonstrating the rewards of winning consistently, as they’ve shown no signs of slowing down. Compared to the previous year, there is a noticeable increase in focus from the sport’s top teams, reducing the risk of elite clubs like Real Madrid or Paris Saint-Germain missing out on a top finish.
Let’s examine what has changed as we reflect on this week’s Matchday 4 happenings.
Teams Rising in Stock After Four Matches
While some teams have remained stable over the initial four matches, 18 out of the 36 clubs in the league phase hold projected point totals similar to those from September. For example, Monaco’s expected points have not shifted at all, remaining at 10.1.
Conversely, nine teams have experienced a notable uptick in their points and projections.
As expected, many of these teams are well-known. In the previous season, major clubs like Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City had to rebound from slow starts to progress to the knockout rounds, which complicated their draws. This season, however, several top teams have prioritized solid early performances. The top ten clubs globally, according to Opta, are all positioned within the top 12 of the Champions League standings. While teams such as Chelsea and Barcelona have stumbled at times, the leading clubs have generally maintained their form.
Bayern and Arsenal, in particular, have distinguished themselves as the top two teams so far. Bayern has won all of their matches across competitions, while Arsenal’s only league loss came against Liverpool. They’ve outscored adversaries 25-3 in the Champions League, with Bayern also notably defeating reigning champion PSG 2-1 in Paris recently.
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Bayern and Arsenal also display the highest expected improvement in their respective leagues. Bundesliga teams, driven by Bayern and Borussia Dortmund’s efforts, average a projected point increase of 2.0. Meanwhile, English clubs see an average rise of 1.7 points, with three of them represented among the top teams.
Only two clubs from leagues outside Europe’s “Big Five” have shown positive movement: Barcelona stands out as a noteworthy team improving its position.
As we critique the downsides of the Champions League format and European soccer generally—issues like competitive imbalance and overcrowded schedules—it’s crucial to recognize the remarkable moments that arise. For instance, fans of Kairat Almaty experienced a special moment as their captain scored at the iconic San Siro.
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